Korea Republic U23 vs Japan U23 — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.25: Two of the best defences in this tournament meet in a final, and that points one way. Japan have let in less than a goal a game across their last 19, and Korea let in less than a goal a game as well. The seven meetings between these two have averaged 2 goals in total. Japan have won 16, tied 2 and lost 1 of those 19 games, and they beat this same Korea side 1-0 at the Asian Cup in January. Korea have won 9, tied 2 and lost 2 of their last 13 and arrive in good form. These two know each other far too well for an open game. Japan also needed 120 minutes and ten rounds of penalties to beat Uzbekistan three days ago, so legs will be heavy from the first whistle. Korea have their own problems. Yang Hyun-jun and captain Lee Gi-hyuk were both hurt in the semi-final and are in doubt here. A gold medal on the line rarely brings a loose, open game. A 1-0 Japan win is the likeliest finish and that sits comfortably inside this. The risk is Korea's own scoring record. Their games average just over 3 goals in total, and 8 of their last 13 have had 3 or more goals. If this one opens up early, we lose. We still want the tight final.