Almeria vs Burgos — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.5: These two give each other nothing when they meet. Their last 6 meetings averaged just over 2 goals in total, only a third of them reached 3 goals, and the last one finished 0-0. Both teams are built to keep it that way. Almeria have won 7 and tied 3 of their last 15, and they let in less than a goal a game. Their own games have had just over 2 goals in them on average. Burgos are tighter again. They have won 8, tied 5 and lost only 2 of their last 15, and they have the meaner back line. Their games average almost 2 goals in total. They have won 3 and tied 2 of their last 7 away games, letting in under a goal a game on the road. This is third against fourth with a single point between them. Neither side wants to lose a game this big, so both will be careful and the first goal becomes close to decisive. One moment from Embarba or De la Fuente is the likeliest way it breaks. A 1-0 Almeria win is the likeliest finish, and that sits well inside what we want. The risk is that Burgos have been giving up more chances than their clean sheets suggest. If they go behind and chase it late, a tight game can open up fast. We still expect a quiet night in Almeria.