Finland vs Albania — Tips & Analysis

Albania +0.25: Albania are the better organised team here, and they only have to avoid losing. They lead their group on six points from two games, having beaten Belarus 2-0 and San Marino 3-0 without letting in a goal. On the road they have won 4, tied 1 and lost 3 of their last eight, letting in less than a goal a game away. Finland's problem is at the other end. They have won just 2 of their last 8 home games and score less than a goal a game there. Across a longer run they have won 5, tied 3 and lost 8 of their last 16. They have won by 2 or more goals only twice in that time. Albania do not score heavily either, about a goal a game, but their games are quiet and they stay in them. They have lost by 2 or more goals only 3 times in their last 15, and only 4 of those 15 games had 3 or more goals. That points to a cagey night in Helsinki decided by one goal, and a 0-1 Albania win is the likeliest finish. That lands this comfortably. The honest worry is that Albania are missing Qazim Laci, and these two have no past meeting to go on. Finland also put 7 past San Marino in this group, so they can score when space opens up. We still want Albania.