Armenia vs Montenegro — Tips & Analysis

Armenia +0.25: Armenia have the better recent record between these two, and that counts in a game neither side looks like winning well. They have won 2 and tied 1 of the last 4 meetings with Montenegro. They also beat Latvia 2-0 in Yerevan on matchday one and sit top of the group. Armenia barely score, though. They get under a goal a game at home, and their coach has said that avoiding defeat here matters almost as much as winning. Expect a deep, narrow Armenia side happy to make this awkward. Montenegro have their own problems. They score a goal a game, and they are far worse on the road. They have won just one of their last six away games and barely scored in them. They are also without Sead Haksabanovic for the window, and two more players picked up knocks in the build-up. Put that together and a 1-1 tie is the likeliest finish, which does the job for us. Armenia are the side we want, and what we mainly need is for them to avoid defeat. The risk is their injury list. Armenia are missing more than eight players, including centre-backs Sergey Muradyan and Styopa Mkrtchyan, and this defence already lets in more than 2 goals a game. That average is dragged up by heavy losses to Portugal and Georgia, teams well above this level, but a patched-up back line is still a real worry. We are with Armenia to hold on.