Central African Republic vs Burkina Faso — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.5: Goals have to come from somewhere, and the hosts have not been providing them. The Central African Republic have scored one goal in total across their last seven home games. They have won 2 of their last 13 and let in more than 2 goals a game, so they sit deep and hope to stay in it. They are also hosts in name only. This game is in Casablanca because their own stadium is not licensed, so there is no crowd behind them. They also arrive bottom of the group after a 3-1 defeat in Mauritania. Burkina Faso are the better team by a distance, but they win quietly. Their away games are narrow and controlled. They score just over a goal a game on the road and let in a goal a game doing it. They were also held to a 1-1 tie at home by Benin on matchday one. That is how they play: take the lead, manage the game, add a second if it comes. A 0-2 Burkina Faso win is the likeliest finish here, and that suits our side of it. The clear risk is what happened last time out. Burkina Faso beat this same team 4-2 just over a year ago, and they have won by 2 or more goals in 4 of their last 13 games. If the hosts crack early, this can turn into a big win with plenty of goals. We still want the low-scoring game.