Botswana vs Tunisia — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.5: The case here is simple: neither of these teams is making much happen in front of goal. Tunisia are the better side, but this is a rebuilt one. They kept only 14 players from their World Cup squad for this window, and the new-look team opened the group with a 1-1 home tie against Uganda. Tunisia have been creating almost nothing lately. Botswana are even more limited going forward. They score under a goal a game and have won just 2 of their last 15. What they do well is stay in games. They have been beaten by 2 or more goals in only 5 of those 15, and nine of the fifteen finished within a single goal, including six ties. They also opened this group with a 2-2 in Libya. All of that points to a slow, low-scoring qualifier. Botswana will sit deep and make Tunisia work a long time for one clear chance. The last two meetings averaged under 2 goals in total. The most recent of those was a 3-0 Tunisia win. A 0-1 Tunisia win is the likeliest finish, and a game like that suits us. The worry is Tunisia on the road. They have averaged more than 2 goals a game across their last seven away trips. They have had 3 or more goals in 9 of their last 13 games, so an early goal could pull this out of the quiet script. We still want the low-scoring game here.