Türkiye vs Italy — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.5: Neither of these teams can afford a cagey night. Both lost their openers and both sit in the bottom two of their group, so they have to come out and win this one. That is how games get stretched and open. Italy bring the goals with them. Their games average more than 3 goals in total, and 12 of their last 18 had 3 or more. They travel well too, with 5 wins from 8 on the road and just over 2 goals a game scored away. Türkiye are not short of chances either. They lost 1-0 to France in their opener and have been creating plenty without much reward. The problem is at the back, and that helps our case. Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Kenan Yıldız and Orkun Kökçü are all out, and first choice goalkeeper Uğurcan Çakır is suspended after his red card. A backup keeper on debut in a must win game is the sort of thing that leaks a goal. Add the players Italy are missing and this looks like a 1-2 away win. That is three goals, and it is exactly what we want. The honest worry is Türkiye's own scoring. They get under 2 goals a game at home, and the last three meetings between these two averaged just under 3 goals. This can stay tight. We are still backing goals here.