Zimbabwe vs Congo DR — Tips & Analysis

Congo DR -0.5: Congo DR are the better team, and how little they give up is the main reason we are on them. They have let in under a goal a game across their last 16, with clean sheets in wins over Botswana, Benin and Jamaica. They have also not lost by 2 or more goals in any of those 16 games. Their recent level is well above this group. They tied 1-1 with Portugal and beat Uzbekistan 3-1 at the 2026 World Cup. They then won 2-0 against Equatorial Guinea on matchday 1. Zimbabwe are limited going forward. They score under a goal a game and have won 2 of their last 11. They let in more than a goal a game as well, so expect them to sit deep and defend for long spells. That shape usually means a tight, controlled game rather than an open one. Only 5 of Congo DR's last 16 games had 3 or more goals, and 4 of Zimbabwe's last 11 did. Both sides come in on four days of rest. A 0-1 Congo DR win is the likeliest finish, and that is the result we want. The risk is real. Zimbabwe came from 2-0 down to win 3-2 in Sierra Leone with two Marshall Munetsi goals, so they do not fold. Congo DR have also been scoring a bit more than their chances deserve lately. We still trust the better side to find the goal that decides this.