Slovakia vs Moldova — Tips & Analysis

Moldova +2.25: Slovakia should win this. The question is by how much, and Slovakia are not a team that piles goals on. They score just over 1 goal a game, and at home they have scored three or more only once in their last eight there. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 15 games. Their defense is shaky too. Slovakia let in more than a goal a game. Their last two competitive games were a 3-4 loss at home to Kosovo and a 0-6 loss at Germany. Moldova are poor, no question. They have not won in fifteen games, they let in almost 3 goals a game, and they are without Vitalie Damascan. But Moldova's heaviest beatings came against far better attacks than this one, and they have not played a competitive game in 314 days. Rusty teams often sit in and stay organised for a long spell before they tire. Slovakia have named a full strength group with Dúbravka, Škriniar, Hancko, Lobotka and Duda, so expect them to go ahead and then manage the game out. A 2-0 Slovakia win is the likeliest finish, and that is right at the limit of what this pick can take. The risk is a rout. Moldova have lost by 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 12 games, and their back line can fall apart completely. We still think Slovakia win without running riot.