Vietnam vs Philippines — Tips & Analysis

Vietnam -1.25: Vietnam are the best team in this region, and this one comes down to a gap in quality. They have won 11 of their last 14 games and let in less than a goal a game. More to the point, they have won by 2 or more goals in 10 of those 14. Three of their last eight games finished exactly 2-0. The Philippines are no pushover on paper, with 8 wins in their last 17. But they have not scored in either of their last two games, losing 0-1 to Malaysia and 0-1 to Thailand. They also let in four against Myanmar before that. Vietnam have won 7 of the last 8 meetings between these sides and have not lost one. This tournament is played at one site in Indonesia, so it is neutral ground and neither team has a crowd behind it. That suits the better side. A 2-0 Vietnam win looks the likely shape, a goal either side of half time and a clean sheet. That is the pattern they have used all year. The worry is that the Philippines have the bodies to sit deep and stay organised. They have lost by 2 or more in only 2 of their last 17 games, so a narrow Vietnam win is a real danger. We still expect Vietnam to have too much and win by two.