Tips — Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Settled picks and final results for this date
All Tips
UEFA Champions League
Sabah FAvs
Hapoel Beer Sheva💬 Sabah are very hard to score against at home. They have won all three of their European home games this season without letting a goal in. Across the season they let in under a goal a game. Hapoel have to come to Baku and find a way through that. Sabah have won 12 and lost 4 of their last 16, with no ties at all, and they have won 7 of their 9 home games. They score almost 2 goals a game, but their games have just over 2 goals in total, because the other end stays shut. Hapoel have won 9, tied 1 and lost 6 in their last 16, and they let in more than a goal a game. They are also missing Biton and Joao Victor, so the attack that has to protect a 2-1 first leg lead is thinner than they would like. That shapes the night. Hapoel sit in and guard the tie, Sabah push forward and try to break them down. A 2-0 Sabah win, which sends them through 3-2 over the two legs, is the most likely finish, and that keeps the goals down. The risk is clear. Hapoel's games have averaged just over 3 goals, and they knocked out Crvena Zvezda by winning home and away, so they can hurt teams on the break. Even so, we want the low scoring game.
💬 Sabah are very hard to score against at home. They have won all three of their European home games this season without letting a goal in. Across the season they let in under a goal a game. Hapoel have to come to Baku and find a way through that. Sabah have won 12 and lost 4 of their last 16, with no ties at all, and they have won 7 of their 9 home games. They score almost 2 goals a game, but their games have just over 2 goals in total, because the other end stays shut. Hapoel have won 9, tied 1 and lost 6 in their last 16, and they let in more than a goal a game. They are also missing Biton and Joao Victor, so the attack that has to protect a 2-1 first leg lead is thinner than they would like. That shapes the night. Hapoel sit in and guard the tie, Sabah push forward and try to break them down. A 2-0 Sabah win, which sends them through 3-2 over the two legs, is the most likely finish, and that keeps the goals down. The risk is clear. Hapoel's games have averaged just over 3 goals, and they knocked out Crvena Zvezda by winning home and away, so they can hurt teams on the break. Even so, we want the low scoring game.
💬 Norwich turn up in bad shape, and that is the case for Cardiff in one line. They have lost their last two league games and let in five goals doing it, beaten 0-3 at Millwall and 1-2 at home by West Brom. Cardiff have taken to life back in the Championship quickly. They have won 7 and lost only 3 of their last 16 games, and they score 2 goals a game. They also come in off a 3-2 win over Swindon in the first round. Norwich are far from a bad side. They have won 6 of their last 13, and their squad players put four past MK Dons, so the threat is real. But their back line is giving up chances, not just goals, and Cardiff on their own ground should have enough against a team on this run. Both defences look soft right now, so expect an open, untidy cup tie rather than a tight one. We make it 2-1 Cardiff, and that result is enough for our pick of the game. The worry is history and team news. Norwich have won 11 of the last 17 meetings between the clubs, so Cardiff are not the natural favourite here. Cardiff also have a centre-back spot in doubt, and Norwich have league games either side of this, so their side is likely to look different. Cardiff are still the side we want.
💬 Norwich turn up in bad shape, and that is the case for Cardiff in one line. They have lost their last two league games and let in five goals doing it, beaten 0-3 at Millwall and 1-2 at home by West Brom. Cardiff have taken to life back in the Championship quickly. They have won 7 and lost only 3 of their last 16 games, and they score 2 goals a game. They also come in off a 3-2 win over Swindon in the first round. Norwich are far from a bad side. They have won 6 of their last 13, and their squad players put four past MK Dons, so the threat is real. But their back line is giving up chances, not just goals, and Cardiff on their own ground should have enough against a team on this run. Both defences look soft right now, so expect an open, untidy cup tie rather than a tight one. We make it 2-1 Cardiff, and that result is enough for our pick of the game. The worry is history and team news. Norwich have won 11 of the last 17 meetings between the clubs, so Cardiff are not the natural favourite here. Cardiff also have a centre-back spot in doubt, and Norwich have league games either side of this, so their side is likely to look different. Cardiff are still the side we want.
💬 Neither of these teams has been scoring, and that is the heart of this one. Doncaster have barely scored at home, under a goal a game across six matches there. Their games in general have had almost 2 goals in them, and only 4 of their last 13 finished with 3 goals or more. Middlesbrough have not been much livelier on the road. They have won only one of their eight away games, and their own games have had just over 2 goals in them on average. They have been the better side on chances lately, even in defeat at Blackburn, but they turn that into one goal, not three. Both managers are set to make several changes. Fresh legs sound like more goals, and it rarely works that way in a cup tie, because rotated teams take a long time to click. Neither of these attacks clicks quickly at the best of times. A 0-1 to Boro is the shape we expect, a grind decided by one moment rather than a night of chances. That leaves our pick well clear. The catch is the history between them. The last 6 meetings averaged just over 3 goals, and Doncaster beat Middlesbrough 4-0 in this same competition last season, so a one-sided night is not impossible. We still want the low-scoring game.
💬 Neither of these teams has been scoring, and that is the heart of this one. Doncaster have barely scored at home, under a goal a game across six matches there. Their games in general have had almost 2 goals in them, and only 4 of their last 13 finished with 3 goals or more. Middlesbrough have not been much livelier on the road. They have won only one of their eight away games, and their own games have had just over 2 goals in them on average. They have been the better side on chances lately, even in defeat at Blackburn, but they turn that into one goal, not three. Both managers are set to make several changes. Fresh legs sound like more goals, and it rarely works that way in a cup tie, because rotated teams take a long time to click. Neither of these attacks clicks quickly at the best of times. A 0-1 to Boro is the shape we expect, a grind decided by one moment rather than a night of chances. That leaves our pick well clear. The catch is the history between them. The last 6 meetings averaged just over 3 goals, and Doncaster beat Middlesbrough 4-0 in this same competition last season, so a one-sided night is not impossible. We still want the low-scoring game.
💬 Barnsley are the team in trouble here, and that is why we are with Crewe. Barnsley have not won any of their last seven home games, taking three ties and four losses at Oakwell. They score under a goal a game and their matches have had about 2 goals in them. They have tied six of their last 14 games, so level is their normal night. Crewe come from a division below, but they have won all three of their competitive games so far, 1-0, 1-0 and 2-1. They let in one goal in those three games. They do not create much, just over a goal a game, and they defend their box well. They will not be scared of this. Neither side beats anyone heavily either. Barnsley have won by 2 or more in only 1 of their last 14 games. So this has the look of a tight, tense cup tie that could go to penalties, and 1-1 is our read of the 90 minutes. Crewe staying with them is the likeliest outcome by some way. Two things could spoil it. Crewe have a centre-back suspended, which is the last thing a team defending deep needs. Barnsley have also won 7 of the last 10 meetings between the clubs, so the history is against us. Crewe are still the side we want.
💬 Barnsley are the team in trouble here, and that is why we are with Crewe. Barnsley have not won any of their last seven home games, taking three ties and four losses at Oakwell. They score under a goal a game and their matches have had about 2 goals in them. They have tied six of their last 14 games, so level is their normal night. Crewe come from a division below, but they have won all three of their competitive games so far, 1-0, 1-0 and 2-1. They let in one goal in those three games. They do not create much, just over a goal a game, and they defend their box well. They will not be scared of this. Neither side beats anyone heavily either. Barnsley have won by 2 or more in only 1 of their last 14 games. So this has the look of a tight, tense cup tie that could go to penalties, and 1-1 is our read of the 90 minutes. Crewe staying with them is the likeliest outcome by some way. Two things could spoil it. Crewe have a centre-back suspended, which is the last thing a team defending deep needs. Barnsley have also won 7 of the last 10 meetings between the clubs, so the history is against us. Crewe are still the side we want.
💬 Blackpool have been hard to beat on their own patch, and that is the case here in one line. They have not lost in seven home games, winning five of them. At Bloomfield Road they let in under a goal a game and score more than one. They have won four of their last five games overall. Lincoln are the side finding life harder. They have lost both league games since going up, letting in three at home to Portsmouth and two at Middlesbrough. Their captain Tendayi Darikwa left the Portsmouth game on crutches and is expected to miss this one. Lincoln still carry a threat. They score 2 goals a game and their last three games produced four, three and three goals, so they will make chances. Both defences are giving something away, which points at an open tie rather than a dull one. We see Blackpool winning it 2-1, and that result does the job for our pick of the game. The warning is simple. Lincoln won 4-0 at Bloomfield Road in February, they have won 10 of their last 14 games, and they knocked Derby out in the first round. They are a level above Blackpool now and are perfectly capable of winning here. We still want Blackpool.
💬 Blackpool have been hard to beat on their own patch, and that is the case here in one line. They have not lost in seven home games, winning five of them. At Bloomfield Road they let in under a goal a game and score more than one. They have won four of their last five games overall. Lincoln are the side finding life harder. They have lost both league games since going up, letting in three at home to Portsmouth and two at Middlesbrough. Their captain Tendayi Darikwa left the Portsmouth game on crutches and is expected to miss this one. Lincoln still carry a threat. They score 2 goals a game and their last three games produced four, three and three goals, so they will make chances. Both defences are giving something away, which points at an open tie rather than a dull one. We see Blackpool winning it 2-1, and that result does the job for our pick of the game. The warning is simple. Lincoln won 4-0 at Bloomfield Road in February, they have won 10 of their last 14 games, and they knocked Derby out in the first round. They are a level above Blackpool now and are perfectly capable of winning here. We still want Blackpool.
💬 Millwall's away form is the reason we are on them. They have not lost in eight games on the road, and they let in under a goal a game away from home. They arrive in their best run of the season too, beating Norwich 3-0 and winning 2-0 at Bristol City, so goals are coming as well as clean sheets. Cambridge make this hard. Neil Harris has them unbeaten since promotion, with a 3-2 win over Wigan, a 1-1 tie at Bromley and a 2-1 win over Barnet in the first round. They have won six of their eight home games and let in under a goal a game, so the Abbey is not an easy night for anybody. The catch is where that record was built. Most of it came in League Two, and Millwall are a strong Championship side who have lost only 3 of their last 14 games. This looks tight and low on chances, the sort of game one goal wins. We make it 0-1 to Millwall, and that result does the job for our pick of the game. Be ready for a long night, though. Five of Millwall's eight away games finished level, so they tie plenty on the road. Harris also knows this club inside out, and Millwall will rest players in the middle of a league season. Millwall are still the side we want.
💬 Millwall's away form is the reason we are on them. They have not lost in eight games on the road, and they let in under a goal a game away from home. They arrive in their best run of the season too, beating Norwich 3-0 and winning 2-0 at Bristol City, so goals are coming as well as clean sheets. Cambridge make this hard. Neil Harris has them unbeaten since promotion, with a 3-2 win over Wigan, a 1-1 tie at Bromley and a 2-1 win over Barnet in the first round. They have won six of their eight home games and let in under a goal a game, so the Abbey is not an easy night for anybody. The catch is where that record was built. Most of it came in League Two, and Millwall are a strong Championship side who have lost only 3 of their last 14 games. This looks tight and low on chances, the sort of game one goal wins. We make it 0-1 to Millwall, and that result does the job for our pick of the game. Be ready for a long night, though. Five of Millwall's eight away games finished level, so they tie plenty on the road. Harris also knows this club inside out, and Millwall will rest players in the middle of a league season. Millwall are still the side we want.
💬 Two divisions now split these clubs, and that is the case in one line. Ipswich opened their Premier League season by beating Sunderland 2-1. Leicester are a League One side now, and they lost 1-2 at home to Burton Albion on Saturday. Portman Road matters here too. Ipswich have not lost in their last seven home games, with four wins and three ties. They score almost 2 goals a game there and let in under one. Across their last 14 games in all they have lost only once. Leicester travel badly. They score under a goal a game across their last six away games, with one win and four ties. They also lose Oliver Skipp to suspension after his red card against Burton. Leicester have won by 2 or more goals in only one of their last 14 games. A 2-0 Ipswich win is the read. They should be in front before half time and comfortable enough that they never need a third. The honest worry is selection, because Gary O'Neil is expected to change several players and the team is not confirmed. History is a caution as well. Ipswich have won only one of the last 12 meetings and five of them were tied. The gap in level is still too big to ignore, and Ipswich are the side we want.
💬 Two divisions now split these clubs, and that is the case in one line. Ipswich opened their Premier League season by beating Sunderland 2-1. Leicester are a League One side now, and they lost 1-2 at home to Burton Albion on Saturday. Portman Road matters here too. Ipswich have not lost in their last seven home games, with four wins and three ties. They score almost 2 goals a game there and let in under one. Across their last 14 games in all they have lost only once. Leicester travel badly. They score under a goal a game across their last six away games, with one win and four ties. They also lose Oliver Skipp to suspension after his red card against Burton. Leicester have won by 2 or more goals in only one of their last 14 games. A 2-0 Ipswich win is the read. They should be in front before half time and comfortable enough that they never need a third. The honest worry is selection, because Gary O'Neil is expected to change several players and the team is not confirmed. History is a caution as well. Ipswich have won only one of the last 12 meetings and five of them were tied. The gap in level is still too big to ignore, and Ipswich are the side we want.
💬 Neither of these teams scores much, and that is the simple case here. Stevenage score under a goal a game, and their games average almost 2 goals in total. Only 4 of their last 16 games had three or more goals in them. The Lamex is the bigger point. Stevenage have let in well under a goal a game across their last eight home games, and they won five of them. Reading are just as quiet on the road. They score under a goal a game away from home and have tied four of their last seven away games. Their last five results are three ties and two losses. The history says the same. The last nine meetings between these two have averaged under 2 goals. Both sides are expected to make changes, and Stevenage lose Jasper Pattenden, hurt in Saturday's 1-2 home loss to Oxford United. A 1-0 Stevenage win is the read, and a single goal keeps this pick well clear. A level game after 90 minutes goes straight to penalties, so there is no extra time for late goals. The warning is that Reading can go the other way. Their own games average more than 2 goals, and they lost 3-4 at home to Luton on 15 August, so they can get pulled into a shootout. We still expect a tight, low scoring night.
💬 Neither of these teams scores much, and that is the simple case here. Stevenage score under a goal a game, and their games average almost 2 goals in total. Only 4 of their last 16 games had three or more goals in them. The Lamex is the bigger point. Stevenage have let in well under a goal a game across their last eight home games, and they won five of them. Reading are just as quiet on the road. They score under a goal a game away from home and have tied four of their last seven away games. Their last five results are three ties and two losses. The history says the same. The last nine meetings between these two have averaged under 2 goals. Both sides are expected to make changes, and Stevenage lose Jasper Pattenden, hurt in Saturday's 1-2 home loss to Oxford United. A 1-0 Stevenage win is the read, and a single goal keeps this pick well clear. A level game after 90 minutes goes straight to penalties, so there is no extra time for late goals. The warning is that Reading can go the other way. Their own games average more than 2 goals, and they lost 3-4 at home to Luton on 15 August, so they can get pulled into a shootout. We still expect a tight, low scoring night.
💬 Sheffield United have had the better of these meetings for years, and that is where we start. They have won 8 of the last 12 meetings between the clubs. Blackburn's recent wins flatter them too. They have been outplayed in games they came through, and Tony Mowbray is without Scott Wharton, Lewis Miller and Augustus Kargbo, with more changes coming. Ewood Park has been a dead ground of late. Blackburn's six home games have produced just over a goal in total each time, and four of the six ended level. Sheffield United have been the tighter side on the road. They have taken 3 wins and 2 ties from their 7 away games and let in under a goal a game. Their problem sits at the other end. They have not scored in either league game so far, playing out 0-0 with Swansea and 0-0 with Birmingham. Put that together and you get a tight, low-scoring night. Our honest read is 1-1 after 90 minutes and penalties. This is as tight as a tie gets, and Sheffield United have to be the better side. That is a real ask, and it is the risk here. Level is the most common result in Blackburn's last six at Ewood Park, and Blackburn won the last meeting 3-1. Chris Wilder wants his players to treat this like a league game, so Sheffield United should be closer to full strength than most cup teams tonight. They are still the side we want.
💬 Sheffield United have had the better of these meetings for years, and that is where we start. They have won 8 of the last 12 meetings between the clubs. Blackburn's recent wins flatter them too. They have been outplayed in games they came through, and Tony Mowbray is without Scott Wharton, Lewis Miller and Augustus Kargbo, with more changes coming. Ewood Park has been a dead ground of late. Blackburn's six home games have produced just over a goal in total each time, and four of the six ended level. Sheffield United have been the tighter side on the road. They have taken 3 wins and 2 ties from their 7 away games and let in under a goal a game. Their problem sits at the other end. They have not scored in either league game so far, playing out 0-0 with Swansea and 0-0 with Birmingham. Put that together and you get a tight, low-scoring night. Our honest read is 1-1 after 90 minutes and penalties. This is as tight as a tie gets, and Sheffield United have to be the better side. That is a real ask, and it is the risk here. Level is the most common result in Blackburn's last six at Ewood Park, and Blackburn won the last meeting 3-1. Chris Wilder wants his players to treat this like a league game, so Sheffield United should be closer to full strength than most cup teams tonight. They are still the side we want.
💬 Fleetwood have turned every game into a slow, tight one, and that is the heart of this pick. Ten of their 13 games have finished with fewer than three goals, and their games average almost 2 goals in total. Their last three tell the same story. A 0-0 with Gillingham, then two 1-0 wins over Chesterfield, which is two goals scored and none let in. Shrewsbury will not open this up either. They score under a goal a game on the road and have won one of their last eight away games. They have not won any of their last five league games, and they were beaten 1-3 at home by Barnet on Saturday. Fleetwood are missing three midfielders, so they may keep things even simpler than usual. A 1-0 Fleetwood win is how this looks, and one goal keeps this pick clear. A level game after 90 minutes goes straight to penalties, so there is no extra time for late goals. The honest warning is the head to head. More than half of the last 20 meetings between these two had three or more goals, and they tied 2-2 at Shrewsbury in April. Fleetwood have also been making more chances than their goals show, so a busier night is possible. We still want the quiet game.
💬 Fleetwood have turned every game into a slow, tight one, and that is the heart of this pick. Ten of their 13 games have finished with fewer than three goals, and their games average almost 2 goals in total. Their last three tell the same story. A 0-0 with Gillingham, then two 1-0 wins over Chesterfield, which is two goals scored and none let in. Shrewsbury will not open this up either. They score under a goal a game on the road and have won one of their last eight away games. They have not won any of their last five league games, and they were beaten 1-3 at home by Barnet on Saturday. Fleetwood are missing three midfielders, so they may keep things even simpler than usual. A 1-0 Fleetwood win is how this looks, and one goal keeps this pick clear. A level game after 90 minutes goes straight to penalties, so there is no extra time for late goals. The honest warning is the head to head. More than half of the last 20 meetings between these two had three or more goals, and they tied 2-2 at Shrewsbury in April. Fleetwood have also been making more chances than their goals show, so a busier night is possible. We still want the quiet game.
💬 Plymouth do not get taken apart, and that is what this pick rests on. They have lost by 2 or more goals just once in their last 14 games, and they have won eight of those 14. Home Park is an awkward night out for anyone. Argyle score 2 goals a game, and 10 of their last 14 games had three or more goals in them. Coventry are clearly the better team. They have won 11 of their last 17 games, and away from home they have five wins from eight and let in well under a goal a game. Coventry also lose Haji Wright for up to three months, and they are expected to change several players after the opening loss at Arsenal. That is where Plymouth's chance lives. A 1-2 Coventry win is the honest read, and a one goal Coventry win does this pick no harm. What we cannot have is Coventry pulling clear, and that danger is real. They have won by 2 or more goals in 8 of their last 17 games. Plymouth were also beaten 1-3 at Home Park by Stockport County on 15 August. Plymouth have injuries too, with Owen Oseni out for around a month. We are still happy to back Plymouth to stay close.
💬 Plymouth do not get taken apart, and that is what this pick rests on. They have lost by 2 or more goals just once in their last 14 games, and they have won eight of those 14. Home Park is an awkward night out for anyone. Argyle score 2 goals a game, and 10 of their last 14 games had three or more goals in them. Coventry are clearly the better team. They have won 11 of their last 17 games, and away from home they have five wins from eight and let in well under a goal a game. Coventry also lose Haji Wright for up to three months, and they are expected to change several players after the opening loss at Arsenal. That is where Plymouth's chance lives. A 1-2 Coventry win is the honest read, and a one goal Coventry win does this pick no harm. What we cannot have is Coventry pulling clear, and that danger is real. They have won by 2 or more goals in 8 of their last 17 games. Plymouth were also beaten 1-3 at Home Park by Stockport County on 15 August. Plymouth have injuries too, with Owen Oseni out for around a month. We are still happy to back Plymouth to stay close.
EFL Cup
Sheffield Wednesdayvs
Wolves💬 Hillsborough will be full, and Wednesday get this one on their terms. They have had 5 days since their last game, and Wolves have had only 3. Wednesday have also been better than their record looks. They have won 3, tied 4 and lost 8 of their last 15 games, but they have been making far more chances than they have taken lately. The trouble is the finishing. Wednesday score under a goal a game, and it is barely better than that at Hillsborough. Wolves are the stronger side and they are on a good run, unbeaten in five. They won 3-1 at Preston on Saturday and beat Port Vale 3-0 in the last round. They are not hard to score against though. Wolves let in more than a goal a game across their last 15, and they have lost by 2 or more goals four times in that run. Both sides are expected to change players, which narrows the gap again. A 1-2 Wolves win is the read, and that kind of tight night does this pick no harm. The worry is the other Wednesday. They have lost by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 15, and a team that barely scores can fall away fast. We still want Wednesday to keep this close.
💬 Hillsborough will be full, and Wednesday get this one on their terms. They have had 5 days since their last game, and Wolves have had only 3. Wednesday have also been better than their record looks. They have won 3, tied 4 and lost 8 of their last 15 games, but they have been making far more chances than they have taken lately. The trouble is the finishing. Wednesday score under a goal a game, and it is barely better than that at Hillsborough. Wolves are the stronger side and they are on a good run, unbeaten in five. They won 3-1 at Preston on Saturday and beat Port Vale 3-0 in the last round. They are not hard to score against though. Wolves let in more than a goal a game across their last 15, and they have lost by 2 or more goals four times in that run. Both sides are expected to change players, which narrows the gap again. A 1-2 Wolves win is the read, and that kind of tight night does this pick no harm. The worry is the other Wednesday. They have lost by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 15, and a team that barely scores can fall away fast. We still want Wednesday to keep this close.
EFL Cup
Stoke Cityvs
Hull City💬 Rotation is what makes this one work. Hull boss Sergej Jakirovic has all but confirmed heavy changes after his side beat Manchester United 2-0 on 22 August. Semi Ajayi, Nobel Mendy and Lewie Coyle all carry knocks from that game. Stoke will shuffle their pack too, so a gap between two divisions turns into a gap between two second choice sides. Stoke's whole season has been built at the Bet365 Stadium. They are 4W-2D-3L there and score almost 2 goals a game at home. On the road they have lost all seven and barely score, so their own ground is worth a lot to them. Hull are the team in form. They have not lost in five, they let in 1 goal a game, and their games average just over 2 goals. That points at a scrappy, low chance cup tie rather than an open one. Stoke have also won 12 of the last 20 meetings between these clubs. A 1-1 after ninety minutes is the natural read, and a level game is a good night for this pick. The warning is real. Stoke have lost 10 of their last 16 and are missing five players through injury, with Svante Ingelsson suspended. If Hull keep enough of their best names on the pitch, this can get away from Stoke. We still want Stoke with the head start at home.
💬 Rotation is what makes this one work. Hull boss Sergej Jakirovic has all but confirmed heavy changes after his side beat Manchester United 2-0 on 22 August. Semi Ajayi, Nobel Mendy and Lewie Coyle all carry knocks from that game. Stoke will shuffle their pack too, so a gap between two divisions turns into a gap between two second choice sides. Stoke's whole season has been built at the Bet365 Stadium. They are 4W-2D-3L there and score almost 2 goals a game at home. On the road they have lost all seven and barely score, so their own ground is worth a lot to them. Hull are the team in form. They have not lost in five, they let in 1 goal a game, and their games average just over 2 goals. That points at a scrappy, low chance cup tie rather than an open one. Stoke have also won 12 of the last 20 meetings between these clubs. A 1-1 after ninety minutes is the natural read, and a level game is a good night for this pick. The warning is real. Stoke have lost 10 of their last 16 and are missing five players through injury, with Svante Ingelsson suspended. If Hull keep enough of their best names on the pitch, this can get away from Stoke. We still want Stoke with the head start at home.
💬 Neither of these teams scores enough to worry us. Watford have won both home games this season, 2-1 against Southampton and 1-0 against Crawley Town in the last round. The second of those needed a 99th minute winner, which tells you how they are getting results. They score under a goal a game, and only four of their last sixteen games have produced four goals or more. Peterborough are worse away from home. They are 1W-1D-5L on the road and score under a goal a game there. They have won by 2 or more in only 1 of their last 14 games. Watford are missing five players with a sixth to be checked, so this is not a side about to run riot either. Ties in this round are usually cagey, with both managers making changes and neither attack settled. A 1-0 home win, in the same shape as the Crawley game, is the likeliest way this goes, and that leaves us well clear. The risk sits in Watford's defending. They let in almost 2 goals a game and have lost by 2 or more in 7 of their last 16. Goals can arrive in a rush if this one breaks open late. We are happy to back the quiet game.
💬 Neither of these teams scores enough to worry us. Watford have won both home games this season, 2-1 against Southampton and 1-0 against Crawley Town in the last round. The second of those needed a 99th minute winner, which tells you how they are getting results. They score under a goal a game, and only four of their last sixteen games have produced four goals or more. Peterborough are worse away from home. They are 1W-1D-5L on the road and score under a goal a game there. They have won by 2 or more in only 1 of their last 14 games. Watford are missing five players with a sixth to be checked, so this is not a side about to run riot either. Ties in this round are usually cagey, with both managers making changes and neither attack settled. A 1-0 home win, in the same shape as the Crawley game, is the likeliest way this goes, and that leaves us well clear. The risk sits in Watford's defending. They let in almost 2 goals a game and have lost by 2 or more in 7 of their last 16. Goals can arrive in a rush if this one breaks open late. We are happy to back the quiet game.
💬 Betis come to Mestalla without six players, and the missing names are the ones who make their attack work. Lo Celso, Ezzalzouli and Ruibal are all out, which takes away the width and the passing that normally opens teams up. That is why we are with Valencia here. Valencia have not lost in their last 5 games, and their season reads 6 wins, 3 ties and 4 losses in 13. They score more than a goal a game and let in just over one. They have lost by 2 or more goals only once in those 13 games, so heavy defeats are not their pattern. Betis are a solid side, but they do not win big. They have won 5, tied 5 and lost 2 in their last 12, and they have won by 2 or more goals only once in that run. On the road they have tied 3 of their 5 games. The history says the same. These two have met 20 times with 7 ties, and there is barely anything between them. A 1-1 looks the most likely score, and Valencia avoiding defeat is what this pick is built on. The worry is real, though. Copete is out and Mari and Foulquier are doubtful, so Valencia patch up their back line. They also did not score last time out, a 0-0 tie at home with Celta. We still trust Valencia to stay in this game.
💬 Betis come to Mestalla without six players, and the missing names are the ones who make their attack work. Lo Celso, Ezzalzouli and Ruibal are all out, which takes away the width and the passing that normally opens teams up. That is why we are with Valencia here. Valencia have not lost in their last 5 games, and their season reads 6 wins, 3 ties and 4 losses in 13. They score more than a goal a game and let in just over one. They have lost by 2 or more goals only once in those 13 games, so heavy defeats are not their pattern. Betis are a solid side, but they do not win big. They have won 5, tied 5 and lost 2 in their last 12, and they have won by 2 or more goals only once in that run. On the road they have tied 3 of their 5 games. The history says the same. These two have met 20 times with 7 ties, and there is barely anything between them. A 1-1 looks the most likely score, and Valencia avoiding defeat is what this pick is built on. The worry is real, though. Copete is out and Mari and Foulquier are doubtful, so Valencia patch up their back line. They also did not score last time out, a 0-0 tie at home with Celta. We still trust Valencia to stay in this game.
UEFA Champions League
Bodo/Glimtvs
NEC Nijmegen💬 NEC have to chase this tie, and that is exactly how Bodo/Glimt like it. The Norwegians won the first leg 3-1 in Nijmegen on 19 August, so the visitors need at least two goals here and cannot sit in. Bodo are close to unbeatable at Aspmyra. They have won eight of their ten home games, scoring almost 3 goals a game there and letting in under a goal. Across all games they have won by 2 or more in 10 of their last 18, and they have not lost by 2 or more once. NEC are the weaker side and they are short handed. Five players are out, including A. Kaplan, K. Ogawa and P. Schuurs, with two more doubtful. They have won 4, tied 4 and lost 4 of their last 12, and they let in more than a goal a game. NEC have been making chances lately, so they should score at some point. A 3-1 to Bodo, with the visitors caught on the break, is the likeliest way this goes, and that is a winning night for us. The one worry is that Bodo are two goals up on the tie and can afford to slow it down. They are also without H. Evjen and A. Mikkelsen, with four more doubtful. We still expect them to win this by a couple.
💬 NEC have to chase this tie, and that is exactly how Bodo/Glimt like it. The Norwegians won the first leg 3-1 in Nijmegen on 19 August, so the visitors need at least two goals here and cannot sit in. Bodo are close to unbeatable at Aspmyra. They have won eight of their ten home games, scoring almost 3 goals a game there and letting in under a goal. Across all games they have won by 2 or more in 10 of their last 18, and they have not lost by 2 or more once. NEC are the weaker side and they are short handed. Five players are out, including A. Kaplan, K. Ogawa and P. Schuurs, with two more doubtful. They have won 4, tied 4 and lost 4 of their last 12, and they let in more than a goal a game. NEC have been making chances lately, so they should score at some point. A 3-1 to Bodo, with the visitors caught on the break, is the likeliest way this goes, and that is a winning night for us. The one worry is that Bodo are two goals up on the tie and can afford to slow it down. They are also without H. Evjen and A. Mikkelsen, with four more doubtful. We still expect them to win this by a couple.
💬 Birmingham hardly ever get beaten badly, and that is the heart of this one. They have lost by 2 or more in just 1 of their last 15 games. They are unbeaten in five as well, and 4W-2D-2L on their own ground, where they let in about a goal a game. Brentford are the better team, but they are not a side that wins big. They have won by 2 or more in only 2 of their last 18 games, and nine of those eighteen finished level. Keith Andrews is expected to freshen up the team that beat Tottenham 3-0, and Chris Davies has plenty of players pushing for a start too. That turns this into a game between two second choice sides, not a Premier League club against a Championship one. Birmingham's games are quiet as well, averaging 2 goals in total. A 1-1 that stays level to the whistle fits both teams, and a tight game is a winning night for this pick. The risk is plain. Brentford have lost only three of eighteen and put three past Tottenham three days ago. If Andrews keeps enough of that side on the pitch, they have the players to win this by 2. We are still with Birmingham and the head start.
💬 Birmingham hardly ever get beaten badly, and that is the heart of this one. They have lost by 2 or more in just 1 of their last 15 games. They are unbeaten in five as well, and 4W-2D-2L on their own ground, where they let in about a goal a game. Brentford are the better team, but they are not a side that wins big. They have won by 2 or more in only 2 of their last 18 games, and nine of those eighteen finished level. Keith Andrews is expected to freshen up the team that beat Tottenham 3-0, and Chris Davies has plenty of players pushing for a start too. That turns this into a game between two second choice sides, not a Premier League club against a Championship one. Birmingham's games are quiet as well, averaging 2 goals in total. A 1-1 that stays level to the whistle fits both teams, and a tight game is a winning night for this pick. The risk is plain. Brentford have lost only three of eighteen and put three past Tottenham three days ago. If Andrews keeps enough of that side on the pitch, they have the players to win this by 2. We are still with Birmingham and the head start.
💬 These two met at the City Ground only three days ago, and Leeds won it 1-0 with a late goal. Neither side made many clear chances that night. That is normal for this game. The last 20 meetings have averaged just over 2 goals in total, and only 3 in every 10 have had 3 or more goals. Forest have been tight at home. They have scored just over a goal a game there and let in under a goal a game, and 3 of their 7 home games ended level. Glasner is expected to change most of his team for this cup tie, with Savona and Yates hurt and Diomande in line for a debut. Leeds have the better season record, 8 wins, 5 ties and 4 losses in their last 17, and they let in 1 goal a game. They will rest players too, so both sides put out something close to a second team. Two rearranged teams with 3 days in their legs are not built to trade goals. A 1-1 after 90 minutes looks the likeliest finish, with penalties deciding who goes through. Here is the honest worry. No lineup is confirmed, and a heavily changed team can be sloppy and let the game get loose early. We still want the quiet, low scoring night.
💬 These two met at the City Ground only three days ago, and Leeds won it 1-0 with a late goal. Neither side made many clear chances that night. That is normal for this game. The last 20 meetings have averaged just over 2 goals in total, and only 3 in every 10 have had 3 or more goals. Forest have been tight at home. They have scored just over a goal a game there and let in under a goal a game, and 3 of their 7 home games ended level. Glasner is expected to change most of his team for this cup tie, with Savona and Yates hurt and Diomande in line for a debut. Leeds have the better season record, 8 wins, 5 ties and 4 losses in their last 17, and they let in 1 goal a game. They will rest players too, so both sides put out something close to a second team. Two rearranged teams with 3 days in their legs are not built to trade goals. A 1-1 after 90 minutes looks the likeliest finish, with penalties deciding who goes through. Here is the honest worry. No lineup is confirmed, and a heavily changed team can be sloppy and let the game get loose early. We still want the quiet, low scoring night.
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