Tips — Wednesday, 26 August 2026

💬 Vietnam beat this same Thailand side 2-0 in Bangkok four days ago, and nothing about that night was lucky. Vietnam have won 12, tied 1 and lost 1 of their last 14 games, and they arrive on a five game winning run. They let in well under a goal a game. At home they have won 5 and tied 1 of their last 6, and they have won by 2 or more goals in 10 of their last 14. Thailand have to attack from the first whistle now, because only a two goal win takes this to extra time. That is the part we like most. Chasing leaves space behind their defence, and Vietnam are at their best hitting teams on the break. Thailand have lost their last two games and did not score in Bangkok. Their big away scoring came against Laos, Sri Lanka and Chinese Taipei, not against sides like this one. A packed home crowd and a 1-0 Vietnam win looks the likely finish, and a Vietnam win is exactly what we need. The catch is that 2-0 lead. Vietnam lift the trophy even if this one ends level, so they may sit deep and take no risks at all. Vietnam have also won only 3 of the last 12 meetings between these two, losing 5. We still want Vietnam to take this one.

💬 Both of these teams are set up for a quiet night, and that is why we want the low scoring game here. Bradford have won their last three games, all with clean sheets, and their games have had 2 goals in them on average. Ten of their last 14 finished with fewer than 3 goals, and at Valley Parade they let in under a goal a game. Burnley are the bigger name, but they have not been scoring. They have not won any of their last 14 games and they score under a goal a game. They only got past Notts County on penalties in the last round after a 1-1. Burnley also come in on three days' rest, against a Bradford side who have had six. A rotated team on tired legs is not going to blow this open. A 1-1 after 90 minutes looks the most likely finish, and that keeps the goal count right where we want it. The honest worry is that Burnley's own games have not been quiet. Seven of their last 14 had 3 or more goals and they let in just over 2 a game. Most of that damage came in the Premier League, against far better teams than Bradford. We still want the tight, low scoring game.

💬 West Brom are hard to beat by a big margin, and that is the case for backing them here. They have not lost by 2 or more goals in their last 16 games. They have won 7, tied 7 and lost only 2 in that run, and they let in under a goal a game. They are also playing well right now. They won 4-1 at Rotherham in the last round and beat Burnley 3-1 on Sunday. Newcastle are the bigger club, but they are stretched thin. They play three days after a 2-2 with Liverpool and are expected to make a lot of changes, with young and fringe players in line to start. Their defence lets in almost 2 goals a game, and they have won by 2 or more in only 2 of their last 13. The last 17 meetings between these clubs read 7W-5D-5L to Newcastle, so this has always been close. A 2-1 Newcastle win is the likely shape, and a one goal game is what we want. The risk is that nobody knows how strong the Newcastle team will be. Even their fringe players carry quality the Championship rarely sees, and one early goal could turn this into a long night. We are happy to back West Brom to stay in the game.

💬 Goals have followed both of these teams around, and that is why we want the busier game here. Eight of Tottenham's last 13 games have had 3 or more goals, and their games average 3 goals in total. Their defence is a big part of that. Spurs let in almost 2 goals a game, and they were beaten 0-3 at Brentford last time out. Maddison, Xavi Simons, Kulusevski and Odobert are all out, so the side that starts will be patched together. Charlton will not sit back and admire them. They have won four of their last five, including 2-1 at West Ham, and they have scored in each of their last ten games. Eight of their last 14 games have had 3 or more goals too. Here is the honest part. The most likely single score is a 2-1 Tottenham win, and we need this game to be busier than that. Two teams who both keep letting goals in should give us the chances to get there. The worry is real, though. Charlton have been winning games without creating much, so a quieter night from them is possible. A rotated Spurs side could also take a lead and slow the whole thing down. We are still on the side of goals.

💬 Real Sociedad carry almost nothing forward on the road, and that is why this game should stay quiet. They have not won any of their last 7 away games, and they score just over a goal a game away from home. Betis beat them 1-0 in their opener. Sociedad are also hard to beat by much. Across their last 13 games they have been beaten by more than one goal only once, with 6 ties and 4 one goal defeats. Real Madrid will have the ball for most of the night, but their attack is thinner than usual. Rodrygo and Endrick are out, and Militao and Mendy are missing from the defence. Madrid have scored just over 2 goals a game across their 7 home games. The last 20 meetings between these two have averaged just over 3 goals in total. A 2-0 Madrid win looks the likely finish. They take their time, break through, and add a second late without the game ever getting away from Sociedad. The risk is that these two have produced some wild nights, including 4-1 and 4-4 scorelines. Mbappe has also scored 7 goals in his last 6 league games against Sociedad. One early goal could change the whole shape of this. We still want the quieter game.

💬 Slovan Bratislava just do not lose, and that is the simple case for backing them here. They have won 11 of their last 14 games and lost only 1. On the road they have won all seven, scoring 2 goals a game and letting in under a goal a game. They have lost by 2 or more only once in their last 14. Celje have not beaten them either. The three meetings between these clubs read 0W-2D-1L to Celje, and two of them finished 1-1, including the first leg seven days ago. Celje are still a threat at home. They score just over 2 goals a game and their games have had just over 3 goals in them on average. But they are without Bejger and Pisek, so they are short of bodies. Slovan have a problem of their own, with Kukharevych out and Sporar a doubt. Another 1-1 looks the likeliest finish, and Slovan avoiding defeat is all we are asking for. The warning is fair, though. Slovan built that perfect away record mostly against Slovak league teams and weaker European sides, so it looks better than it is. Celje have also had seven days' rest to Slovan's four, and that gap can tell late in a tight game. We still trust Slovan to stay unbeaten.

💬 The first leg in Sofia finished 0-0, and nothing about these two sides says the return will suddenly open up. Levski are hard to score against. They have let in well under a goal a game across their last 16 games. They have won 10 and lost only 1 in that run, and they have not lost on the road. Only 6 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals. AEK are strong at home, 5W-2D-1L there, but goals come slowly for them against organised teams. They tied four games in a row before winning at the weekend, and they let in under a goal a game themselves. Both sides have had four days off, so this is not a night when tired legs pull a game apart. It is a knockout tie where one mistake ends a season, and both teams know it. A 1-0 to AEK, probably late, is the most likely way this is decided inside 90 minutes, and that suits us. The worry is that AEK's home scoring gets a lift from a 4-0 against Iraklis, and they can punish a tiring team. If they score early, Levski have to come out and chase, and the game opens up. We still want the quiet night.

💬 Fenerbahçe arrive with their whole spine missing, and that is why we want goals here. Both senior goalkeepers are unavailable, along with centre backs Diego Carlos, Soyuncu, Becao and Oosterwolde. Asensio and Akturkoglu are out too. A stand in keeper behind a patched up defence is a lot to ask on a big night. Lyon's home games have been wide open anyway. Their seven home games have had more than 3 goals in them on average, and not one of them ended in a tie. Eight of Lyon's last 14 games have had 3 or more goals. Fenerbahçe still carry a threat the other way. They score almost 2 goals a game, they have lost only 4 of their last 17, and 9 of those 17 games had 3 or more goals. The tie is level after the first leg, so nobody can sit back and play for a 0-0. Somebody has to go and win it. A 2-1 Lyon win is the likeliest finish, and that gives us the goals we want. The one thing that gives us pause is history. The two meetings between these clubs finished 1-1 and 0-0, so these sides can cancel each other out. We are still backing the busier game.

💬 Dinamo Zagreb have not lost a game in 15, and that run is the reason we are with them here. They have won 12 and tied 3 in that time, and they have not lost by 2 or more goals once. On the road they have won 4 and tied 1 of their last 5, scoring more than 2 goals a game. Across the whole run they let in under a goal a game. The first leg finished 2-2 in Zagreb, where Dinamo led by two inside the first half before Viking clawed it back. Viking are a real problem at home. They have won all 7 home games this season, they score more than 2 goals a game and they let in a goal a game. They have won 13, tied 2 and lost 2 of their last 17. Both sides know extra time is there if the two legs stay level, so neither has to chase this early. Viking are also without Berisha and Baertelsen from the attack that scored twice in Zagreb. A tense 1-1 in Stavanger looks the likely finish, and Dinamo avoiding defeat on the night is what we want. The worry is the rest. Viking have had 8 days off since the first leg. Dinamo played 4 days ago and then travelled to Norway, so tired legs late on could cost them. We still back Dinamo to stay unbeaten.

💬 Everton are not a side who win big, and that is the case for backing Preston to stay close here. Everton have won by 2 or more goals in only 3 of their last 13 games. They have won 4, tied 3 and lost 6 in that run, and they let in more than a goal a game. Their 2-0 win over Crystal Palace on the opening weekend flattered them too, because Palace made the better chances. Everton are also short in midfield. Iroegbunam is out for several weeks, Norgaard is missing, and Garner is not expected to start after hernia surgery. Moyes is likely to make changes for a second round cup game. Preston are clearly the weaker team. They have lost both of their opening Championship games and let in 6 goals in their last 3. They score just over a goal a game, so this is about how long they can keep it tight at Deepdale. A 1-2 looks the likely finish, with Everton doing enough without ever pulling clear. The honest worry is the history. Preston have lost both previous meetings with Everton, 0-3 and 0-2, and did not score in either. They have also lost by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 13. We still think Preston keep this within one goal.