Sabah FA vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.75: Sabah are very hard to score against at home. They have won all three of their European home games this season without letting a goal in. Across the season they let in under a goal a game. Hapoel have to come to Baku and find a way through that. Sabah have won 12 and lost 4 of their last 16, with no ties at all, and they have won 7 of their 9 home games. They score almost 2 goals a game, but their games have just over 2 goals in total, because the other end stays shut. Hapoel have won 9, tied 1 and lost 6 in their last 16, and they let in more than a goal a game. They are also missing Biton and Joao Victor, so the attack that has to protect a 2-1 first leg lead is thinner than they would like. That shapes the night. Hapoel sit in and guard the tie, Sabah push forward and try to break them down. A 2-0 Sabah win, which sends them through 3-2 over the two legs, is the most likely finish, and that keeps the goals down. The risk is clear. Hapoel's games have averaged just over 3 goals, and they knocked out Crvena Zvezda by winning home and away, so they can hurt teams on the break. Even so, we want the low scoring game.