Watford vs Peterborough — Tips & Analysis

Under 3: Neither of these teams scores enough to worry us. Watford have won both home games this season, 2-1 against Southampton and 1-0 against Crawley Town in the last round. The second of those needed a 99th minute winner, which tells you how they are getting results. They score under a goal a game, and only four of their last sixteen games have produced four goals or more. Peterborough are worse away from home. They are 1W-1D-5L on the road and score under a goal a game there. They have won by 2 or more in only 1 of their last 14 games. Watford are missing five players with a sixth to be checked, so this is not a side about to run riot either. Ties in this round are usually cagey, with both managers making changes and neither attack settled. A 1-0 home win, in the same shape as the Crawley game, is the likeliest way this goes, and that leaves us well clear. The risk sits in Watford's defending. They let in almost 2 goals a game and have lost by 2 or more in 7 of their last 16. Goals can arrive in a rush if this one breaks open late. We are happy to back the quiet game.