Genoa vs Napoli — Tips & Analysis

Genoa +0.75: Napoli have never had an easy night at the Ferraris. Genoa have won 1, tied 7 and lost 12 of the last 20 meetings, and seven ties in twenty is the number that matters here. This time Napoli arrive without the men who give them control. Buongiorno is out at centre back, and Lobotka and Gilmour are both reported missing in midfield. Massimiliano Allegri also takes his first league game in charge, so the shape and the picks are new. Genoa are ready to go, six days on from a 4-1 win in the cup. Their games are quiet ones, averaging just over 2 goals, with 60% of them ending with 2 goals or fewer. They score just over a goal a game and let in about the same. Napoli defend well on the road, letting in less than a goal a game away from home, and they have won 8 of their last 15. All of that points to a tight, physical night decided by a set piece rather than open play. A 1-1 is the read, and Genoa staying level or close is exactly what this pick wants. The risk is obvious. Napoli have won 12 of those 20 meetings and are the better team. If Allegri takes control early Genoa can be picked off, but we like the head start.