Cerezo Osaka vs Shimizu S-pulse — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.75: The away side is the reason this one stays quiet. Shimizu S-pulse play in the lowest scoring games of anyone here, with just over 2 goals a game on average. Twelve of their last 18 have finished with 2 goals or fewer. They score under a goal a game and they sit deep on the road, where they let in just over a goal a trip. Cerezo Osaka will have the ball for long spells and they have lost only once in nine at home. The problem for them is turning that into goals against a packed defense. They were beaten 3-0 at Avispa Fukuoka last time out and created almost nothing in it. The two most recent meetings between these sides finished 1-1 and 0-0, which is exactly the kind of game this looks like. We expect Cerezo to win it 1-0, with the goal coming from a set piece or a single moment rather than a flowing move. Here is the honest worry. The longer history between them is busy, averaging just over 3 goals across the last 20 meetings. Twelve of Cerezo's last 18 games have also had 3 or more goals, and an early Cerezo goal could stretch this open. We still think Shimizu's low scoring style wins out and keeps the total down.