Udinese vs Como — Tips & Analysis

Udinese +0.75: Udinese do not get beaten by much, and that is the backbone of this pick. They have not lost by 2 or more in any of their last 13 games. Across seven home games they let in less than a goal a game. Udinese are hard work to play against. They ground out a 1-0 win over Padova last time out. They do not score much themselves, under a goal a game at home, so their games stay tight and low. Como are the better team. They won 10 of their last 17 games and score almost 2 goals a game. On the road they took 5 wins, 2 ties and 2 losses from nine games. They win plenty, but they won by 2 or more in only 5 of their last 17. These two cancel each other out. The four meetings between them averaged under 2 goals in total. The last one at this ground finished 0-0 in April. A 1-1 is the honest call, and Udinese avoiding defeat is all this needs. The worry is the back line. Christian Kabasele is out after his red card last time out, and Chakvetadze and Zanoli are both doubtful. The defence that earned those numbers is being picked apart before kick off. Como have the quality to punish a patched up back four. We still want Udinese with the head start.