Kashima vs Avispa Fukuoka — Tips & Analysis

Kashima -0.5: Kashima have made their own ground a hard place to visit, and that is the heart of this pick. They have won eight and tied one of their nine home games there, and they let in well under a goal a game in them. Across all games they have won 14 of their last 19. Avispa Fukuoka are a different kind of team. They score just over a goal a game and they tie far too often, with 8 ties in their last 18. On the road they manage barely more than a goal a trip. That is not enough to hurt a Kashima side that keeps the ball and keeps its shape. Meetings between these two are usually tight, averaging about 2 goals in total over the last 20. Kashima have won 9 of them and lost only 5. So the shape of the game is clear. Kashima should take the lead before the hour and add a second late as Avispa push out, and a 2-0 home win is what we expect. The worry is real though. Avispa turn more games into ties than anyone else in the division, and they arrive off a 3-0 home win over Cerezo Osaka on 15 August. If they get bodies behind the ball early, this can drag. We still think Kashima have too much for them.