Aruba vs Anguilla — Tips & Analysis

Anguilla +3.25: Aruba are the better team, but they do not win big in competitive games. Their two Nations League wins came by 2-0 and 1-0, and that 2-0 was against these same opponents five days ago. They are on a run of five straight wins, but the three-goal wins in it came against Liechtenstein, Macau and Barbados. Two of those came in the FIFA Series, against a different sort of opponent. Aruba score under 2 goals a game across their last 17, and they have won by 2 or more goals in only 5 of those 17. Anguilla are poor, and we are not pretending otherwise. They have won 3 and lost 10 of their last 13 games. They barely score, under a goal a game, and they have been kept out in four of their last five. That is the point though. Anguilla have nothing to chase with, so they will sit deep and accept a quiet defeat. This is also at a neutral ground in Antigua, so no crowd will lift the better team. A 2-0 to Aruba is the likeliest finish, the same score as the first game. The danger is Anguilla's habit of folding. They were beaten 0-5 only eight days ago, and a 0-4 earlier this year. They also let in 3 goals a game across their eight games on the road. If Aruba get a second goal early, the rest can run away from them. We still think Anguilla keep this one respectable.