Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC — Tips & Analysis

Castellón -1.75: Ceuta cannot defend away from home, and Castellon arrive on five straight wins. Ceuta have let in three or more goals in each of their last three away league games. They lost 1-3 at Burgos, 0-3 at Mallorca and 1-5 at FC Andorra. They let in more than 2 goals a game on the road. Castellon have won 8, tied 4 and lost 2 of their last 14. They score more than a goal a game and let in under one, and they have not lost by 2 or more in any of those 14 games. Ceuta have won 4, tied 5 and lost 6 of their last 15. They have been beaten by 2 or more goals in 6 of them, and they let in almost 2 goals a game. That gap is what this pick is built on. Castellon should be in front before the hour against a defense this open. A 2-0 Castellon win is the likeliest finish. That is the shape we want, and a third goal would make it comfortable. Two things give us pause. Castellon are missing six senior players. Vlak and Brignani are hurt, Mellot is banned and three more are away with their countries. The team that starts is hard to call. Their home form is the weaker half of their season as well, and these two tied three of their last four meetings. We still back Castellon to win this clearly.