Greece vs Germany — Tips & Analysis

Greece +0.75: Greece have already done this job once. They won 1-0 in Germany on 27 September and now lead the group with 7 points from 3 games, three clear of tonight's visitors. That was not a one off. Greece have lost by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 14 games, and they have scored in all three group games. Germany have the better players, but their away version has been blunt. They have managed only 1 goal a game across their last 5 away trips, and they are missing Kai Havertz and Jamal Musiala. Thessaloniki will be loud, and Greece will drop deep and ask Germany to solve the same puzzle again. Expect Germany to keep the ball and push up, then run into bodies. A scrappy 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and that shape suits us fine. The warnings here are real. Germany sit third on 4 points, which is the relegation play-off place, so they have to win and they will take risks to do it. Greece also let in nearly 2 goals a game on this ground, which is softer than they are away from home. We are still happy to back Greece to stay with them.