Tips — Tuesday, 8 September 2026

💬 NEC keep letting goals in, and Excelsior keep scoring them. That is the case for a busy night at De Goffert. NEC let in almost 2 goals a game across their last 13, and at home it is the same story, with 2 wins, 1 tie and 3 losses. 10 of their last 13 games had 3 or more goals. They are also missing Kaplan, Fonville and Mor, and they just lost 1-3 at home to Feyenoord. Excelsior are flying. They sit fifth in the league with 9 points from 4 games, they score almost 2 goals a game, and more than 2 a game on the road. 11 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals. The history says the same thing. These clubs have averaged just over 3 goals across 19 meetings, and more than half of those games had 3 or more goals. Put a leaky home side against a team playing with confidence and the goals should come. Our read is a 2-2, which is the open game we want. The risk is the recent history between them. NEC have won the last three meetings 2-0, 5-0 and 3-0, and Excelsior did not score in any of them. If NEC lead early and Excelsior go quiet again, this finishes too low. We still want the goals.

💬 AEK do not lose at home, and that is the simplest reason we are with them. They have won 6 and tied 2 of their 8 home games, letting in less than a goal a game there. Across their last 13 they are unbeaten, with 7 wins and 6 ties, and they have not lost by 2 or more once. They score just over 2 goals a game. LASK arrive in good form, with 13 wins from their last 14. But that scoring record needs a second look. Their goals a game figure is lifted by cup ties against much weaker teams, including a 6-1 win at Deutschlandsberger SC and a 7-0 at Kalsdorf. Both sides are also without their main striker. AEK cannot pick Frantzdy Pierrot or Dereck Kutesa, and LASK have lost Samuel Adeniran, whose goals knocked Celtic out. Take the strikers away on a first European night and you get a careful, tight game. AEK's defence should hold, and they should find the goal that wins it. A 1-0 to the home side is the likely finish. The risk is that LASK are the real thing, not a team fed by weak opponents. They beat Celtic 5-1 at their own ground, and they score plenty on the road. If they land the first goal, AEK have to chase and this turns awkward. We still trust AEK at home.

💬 Villa cannot score right now, and Brugge are close to unbeatable at their own ground. That is why we are with the home side. Brugge have won 7 and tied 1 of their 8 home games, and they let in less than a goal a game there. Across their last 16 they have won 12, and they have not lost by 2 or more once. They score more than 2 goals a game. Villa have scored one goal in their last four games. They tied 0-0 at Hull, lost 0-1 to Arsenal, lost 0-4 at Brighton and lost 1-2 to PSG. On the road they have won 2, tied 2 and lost 4, and they score a goal a game. Amadou Onana, Johan Manzambi and Brian Madjo are all out, and the attack is still being rebuilt around Nicolas Jackson. Brugge should keep the ball, take a chance in each half and make this a long night. A 2-0 to the home side is the likely finish, and that is more than enough for us. The warning is recent history. Villa won both games between these clubs back in 2025, 3-1 and 3-0, so this ground holds no fear for them. Brugge also scored those home goals against Belgian teams, not a Premier League back four. We are still with Brugge to stand up here.

💬 Blackburn are struggling to make anything happen in front of goal, and that is the case for a quiet night. They have six players ruled out, including Wharton, Kargbo and Ohashi, so the side that starts is short of its best. Blackburn score a goal a game and their games end with just over 2 goals in total. At Ewood Park it is worse. They have won 1 of their 7 home games and scored five goals there all season. Sheffield United have been a much better team on the road. They have won 4 of their last 7 away games and let in under a goal a game on those trips. They are happy to sit in, stay patient and win a quiet one. A blunt home attack against a well organised away defence does not add up to a busy game. Blackburn have tied 6 of their last 15 games, so slow and even is normal for them. A 0-1 Sheffield United win looks like the most likely result, and a night like that stays low scoring. The warning is the history here. The last 13 meetings averaged almost 3 goals, and Sheffield United won 2-1 at this ground in the League Cup two weeks ago. One early goal would change the whole shape. We still want the quiet game.

💬 Stoke are a mess away from home, and that is the quickest route to goals here. They have lost all 6 of their away games in this run, scoring less than a goal a game and letting in almost 3. They have also lost by 2 or more in 8 of their last 16 games. Cardiff are in the bottom three and still looking for a first league win, but home is different. They have won 4 of 9 at Cardiff City Stadium, where they score almost 2 goals a game and let in just over one. Their games are busy ones. Cardiff's games end with just over 3 goals in total, and 8 of their last 16 had 3 or more. Stoke can score too. They beat Charlton 4-0 and Norwich 1-0 at home in their last two. Cardiff need the points and will come forward, and that leaves room at the back for a Stoke side who will get chances. A 2-1 Cardiff win is the most likely score, and that is the kind of night we want. The catch is the history between these two. Nine of the last 15 meetings ended level, and fewer than half of them had 3 or more goals. Cardiff's scoring numbers are also flattered by League One games from last season. We still expect an open game with goals in it.

💬 Southampton turn St Mary's into a busy ground, and that is the case for goals. Their home games have averaged 4 goals in total. They have won 5 of 8 there, scoring more than 2 goals a game, but they also let in more than a goal a game at home. Across the season 12 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals. That is a team who play open football either way. Swansea are top of the Championship on 11 points and they defend well. They carry a threat going forward too. On the road they score almost 2 goals a game, and 8 of their last 15 games had 3 or more. Swansea are also missing Burgess, Franco and Stewart. Southampton have dominated this matchup, winning 13 of the last 19 meetings, and they won 2-1 at Swansea in April. A 2-1 Southampton win is the most likely score here, and a game like that suits us. The risk is how well Swansea have been defending lately. They shut out Wrexham and Sheffield United, and the 19 meetings on record averaged just over 2 goals in total. A tight 1-0 or 1-1 is the way this one goes wrong. We still think Southampton's threat at home opens this one up.

💬 Watford are the home side but they are not the better team just now. They have won 3, tied 4 and lost 9 of their last 16 games, and they did not score in either of their last two league games. Watford score less than a goal a game and let in almost 2 a game. They are also missing five players, with Baah, Bola, Grieves, Ngakia and Traore all ruled out. Preston arrive off a 2-1 win over Blackburn that ended a four game losing run. They travel better than they play at home. They won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 road games, against 1 win in 8 at their own ground. The table has Watford 17th and Preston 23rd, but that gap is far bigger on paper than on grass. The history backs it up. Five of the last 11 meetings between them ended level, and the recent set includes a 2-2, a 1-1 and a 0-0. A nervy 1-1 fits both of these sides better than a one sided night, and that result suits the team we are backing. The worry is Preston's own record. They have lost 8 of their last 13 games and lost by 2 or more goals in 5 of them, so they can come apart quickly. Carroll and McCann are doubts as well. We still think Preston leave here without losing.

💬 Burnley are the weakest team in this league right now, and that is the case in a nutshell. They have won 0, tied 6 and lost 8 of their last 14 games, and they sit bottom of the Championship on 2 points from 5. On the road it looks worse. Burnley have won none of their 6 away games, scoring less than a goal a game and letting in more than 2. They also have eight players ruled out and two more in doubt, with Cullen and Beyer missing from the back line. Wrexham have quietly become harder to score against. They kept clean sheets in a 0-0 at Swansea and a 3-0 win at Millwall, and they are the stronger side in almost every part of this game. That should be enough here. A 2-1 to Wrexham looks the likely result, with Burnley finding a goal because Wrexham still let in almost 2 a game at their own ground. The catch is that Wrexham are not winning big either. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 18 games. Recent home nights include a 1-2 to Birmingham and a 1-1 with Watford. A reported Jamie Vardy debut could lift Burnley too. We still back Wrexham to take this one.

💬 Lincoln are travelling well and they meet a home side that will not be at full strength. Bournemouth play Real Sociedad in Europe on 17 September, so big changes are expected for this cup tie. Bournemouth are also still looking for a first win of the season under Marco Rose. They have tied 6 of their 7 home games, which says they are hard to beat but short of a knockout punch. Lincoln came up as League One champions and have not lost in four. On the road they have won 6 of 8 games, scoring 2 goals a game and letting in under a goal. That is a well drilled team who keep their shape and take their chances. A much changed Bournemouth side should see plenty of the ball. Breaking down an organised Lincoln back line is a different job. This has the feel of a level tie that goes to penalties, with 1-1 the most likely score after 90 minutes. Lincoln can stay with the home side for the full game. The honest worry is the standard of the teams Lincoln have been beating. Their strong record includes League One games from last season against sides like Port Vale and Wycombe. Neither line-up is known yet either, and Bournemouth could still name enough quality to pull clear. We are happy to be with Lincoln.

💬 Palace are expected to make a lot of changes, and that is the main reason we are with Middlesbrough. Palace have a league game against Ipswich at the weekend and start their European campaign the week after. That is a heavy run for the players who matter. Palace have also been leaky at Selhurst Park, letting in almost 2 goals a game. They have lost by 2 or more in 6 of their last 16 games. Middlesbrough are second in the Championship and playing well. They won 1-0 at QPR last time out, they score more than a goal a game and let in just over one. The big number is this. Middlesbrough have not lost by 2 or more in any of their last 17 games. They are awkward to break down on the road as well, where they have tied 4 of their 9 away trips. A much changed Palace side against an organised, in form Boro team points to a close night. The eight meetings on record averaged just over 2 goals. A 1-1 that heads for penalties is the most likely result, and Boro can live with that. The risk is that Palace name a stronger team than expected. They beat Fulham 3-2 only three days ago and can hurt anyone at their own ground. Even so, Boro are the side we want.

💬 Bradford barely score, and that is why we are with Leyton Orient. Bradford get less than a goal a game and did not score in two of their last four, losing 0-2 at Plymouth and tying 0-0 with Burnley. Their games are quiet ones too. Only 3 of Bradford's last 14 games had 3 or more goals. Orient are not a free scoring side either, but they have more going on. They score more than a goal a game, let in about one, and they have Dane Scarlett and Oliver Dovin available. At Brisbane Road they have tied 3 of their 7 home games, so they are not easy to walk over. These two clubs know each other well. The last 13 meetings averaged 2 goals, so nobody should expect a shootout. This looks like a game decided by a single goal, and a 1-0 Orient win is the most likely score. That is exactly the sort of night we are backing. The worry is real though. Orient have won only 1 of their 7 home games, so wins are not coming easily for them. Aaron Connolly is out after surgery and both managers may rest players in a cup round like this. Bradford are hard to break down and could easily leave with a tie. We still make Orient the better team here.

💬 Two Premier League sides meet in a cup tie that both will treat as a squad night, and the goals should dry up with the changes. Sunderland have scored less than a goal a game across their last seven home games. They have won 7, tied 3 and lost 7 of their last 17, and only 7 of those 17 games had 3 or more goals. Hull City arrive unbeaten in five and let in less than a goal a game across their last 14. Their games have averaged almost 2 goals in total. The history says the same thing. The last 19 meetings averaged just over 2 goals, and four of the last five finished 1-0 or 0-1. Team news points that way too. Hull are without Joe Gelhardt, Jack Butland, Charlie Hughes, Darko Gyabi and Eliot Matazo, and both managers are expected to hand minutes to fringe players. The quality drops, the chances dry up, and a flat 1-1 heading towards penalties is the honest read. A game like that stays low, which is exactly what we want. The risk sits with Sunderland in front of goal. They have been creating more than they have scored in their last three games, so a better night from them opens this up. We still want the quiet game.

💬 West Ham are the form side here and Bolton are falling apart. West Ham have won their last two games 4-2 against Wolves and 3-0 against Derby, and they sit 8th. They score almost 2 goals a game and have won by 2 or more in 6 of their last 16. Bolton are 21st after three straight defeats, the last of them a 0-4 at Millwall. They have also lost Josh Sheehan to a red card ban, with Brunt and Stephenson out as well. Bolton do score at their own ground, and their games have averaged just over 3 goals in total, so this should not be a quiet night. That points to West Ham winning a game with goals in it, and 1-2 looks the likely score. That is a West Ham win, but a narrow one, so we want them to put this away rather than just nick it. The doubt here is real. West Ham have won only 1 of their 7 away games, and both league trips this season ended level, 1-1 at Watford and 2-2 at Burnley. Tomas Soucek is out and Castellanos and Pablo are doubts, so the attack may not be at full strength. We still think the gap in quality shows and West Ham come away with the win.

💬 Newcastle play in busy games, and a cup night with changed teams should keep this one open. Their games have averaged more than 3 goals in total, and 9 of their last 13 had 3 or more. They let in almost 2 goals a game, and on the road it is worse. Newcastle have won one of their six away games, letting in more than 2 a game. Millwall will not sit back either. They have won 7, tied 4 and lost 3 of their last 14, they score more than a goal a game, and they beat Bolton 4-0 on Saturday. At The Den they have four wins in six. Newcastle needed a 3-2 win over West Brom to get through the last round, and they are expected to change the team again. Millwall are missing six players of their own. Two patched up sides with three days rest usually means space and mistakes. Our read is a 1-2 Newcastle win. That gets the game to three goals, and a fourth would make it comfortable. The risk is Millwall's own habit. Only 5 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals, and they let in less than a goal a game at The Den. If Newcastle score early and slow it down, this can finish 0-1. We still want the goals here.

💬 Dortmund are without both of their first choice centre backs, and that is the reason we want goals here. Schlotterbeck and Bensebaini are suspended, Emre Can is out with a knee injury, and seven Dortmund players miss out in total. The attack is untouched. Dortmund have won 11 of their last 15 games, they score just over 2 goals a game, and they have won 5 of their 7 home games. Their games have averaged just over 3 goals in total, and 9 of their last 15 had 3 or more. Villarreal are not a quiet side either. They score almost 2 goals a game, 10 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals, and their games average just over 3 in total. The three meetings between these clubs averaged just over 3 goals as well. So the shape of the night is clear. Dortmund push forward and win, and a patched up back line lets Villarreal onto the scoreboard, with 2-1 the likely score. We are backing this game to go a little past that. The warning is Villarreal's form. They have taken one point from their last three games. They also score just over a goal a game on the road, so they can go quiet for long spells. We still want the busier game.

💬 Both of these teams defend well, and both are a piece short up front. That is why we are on the low scoring side of this one. Porto have won their last 5 games and are unbeaten in their last 11 at home, where they barely let in a goal. Across their last 18 games they have let in less than a goal a game, and their games have averaged just over 2 goals in total. They are also without eight players, including their striker Samu. City are the better team but they have not been running up scores. Their recent wins have mostly been narrow, 1-0 against Coventry and 2-1 against Bournemouth, with only a 4-1 at Crystal Palace looking comfortable. They lose Doku, and their new head coach has only just taken over. The last two meetings between these clubs averaged 2 goals in total, and one of them finished 0-0. A controlled, tight 1-1 in the opener reads truer than a City stroll, and that keeps the goal count where we want it. The risk is that City are simply a level above. Porto built that home record against the weaker teams in their own league, and 12 of City's last 17 games had 3 or more goals. If City go through them early, the goals follow. We still expect a tight, low scoring game.

💬 Lille barely let teams score, and that is the heart of this one. They have let in less than a goal a game across their last 15, and only 5 of those 15 games had 3 or more goals. Their games have averaged just over 2 goals in total. Lille have won 8, tied 4 and lost 3 in that run, so they are hard to break down and rarely rushed. Betis are the livelier team on paper. They score almost 2 goals a game and have won 7 of their last 12. But they arrive four days after beating Real Madrid, and they travel without Abde Ezzalzouli and defender Diego Llorente. That is a tired trip with two men missing. First nights in this competition are usually careful, and Betis are back in it for the first time since 2005. Expect Lille to keep the ball, slow the game down and win it 1-0. That is exactly the kind of night we want here. The warning is Betis in front of goal. They have scored in each of their last four games, and 8 of their last 12 games had 3 or more goals. Lille have also been giving up more chances than their clean sheets suggest, so the shutout is the softest part of this read. We still want the quiet game.