AEK Athens FC vs Lask Linz — Tips & Analysis

AEK Athens FC -0.5: AEK do not lose at home, and that is the simplest reason we are with them. They have won 6 and tied 2 of their 8 home games, letting in less than a goal a game there. Across their last 13 they are unbeaten, with 7 wins and 6 ties, and they have not lost by 2 or more once. They score just over 2 goals a game. LASK arrive in good form, with 13 wins from their last 14. But that scoring record needs a second look. Their goals a game figure is lifted by cup ties against much weaker teams, including a 6-1 win at Deutschlandsberger SC and a 7-0 at Kalsdorf. Both sides are also without their main striker. AEK cannot pick Frantzdy Pierrot or Dereck Kutesa, and LASK have lost Samuel Adeniran, whose goals knocked Celtic out. Take the strikers away on a first European night and you get a careful, tight game. AEK's defence should hold, and they should find the goal that wins it. A 1-0 to the home side is the likely finish. The risk is that LASK are the real thing, not a team fed by weak opponents. They beat Celtic 5-1 at their own ground, and they score plenty on the road. If they land the first goal, AEK have to chase and this turns awkward. We still trust AEK at home.