Southampton vs Swansea — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.5: Southampton turn St Mary's into a busy ground, and that is the case for goals. Their home games have averaged 4 goals in total. They have won 5 of 8 there, scoring more than 2 goals a game, but they also let in more than a goal a game at home. Across the season 12 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals. That is a team who play open football either way. Swansea are top of the Championship on 11 points and they defend well. They carry a threat going forward too. On the road they score almost 2 goals a game, and 8 of their last 15 games had 3 or more. Swansea are also missing Burgess, Franco and Stewart. Southampton have dominated this matchup, winning 13 of the last 19 meetings, and they won 2-1 at Swansea in April. A 2-1 Southampton win is the most likely score here, and a game like that suits us. The risk is how well Swansea have been defending lately. They shut out Wrexham and Sheffield United, and the 19 meetings on record averaged just over 2 goals in total. A tight 1-0 or 1-1 is the way this one goes wrong. We still think Southampton's threat at home opens this one up.