Tips — Wednesday, 9 September 2026

💬 Viking come to Stuttgart without both of their senior strikers, and that is the strongest reason we are with the home side. Veton Berisha and Nick D'Agostino are both out, and captain S. Bjorshol misses this one too. A side without its whole first choice front line has a hard night at this level. Stuttgart have won four, tied one and lost one of their last six games at the MHPArena. They score more than 2 goals a game at home and they beat Koln 4-1 in their last game. They get the ball into the box often, and that should tell against a visiting side sat deep. Viking are no soft touch. They score under 2 goals a game on their league travels and have let in only 1 goal a game across eleven away games. The two clubs have never met, so there is no history to lean on. A 2-0 home win is how this reads, and the bigger the Stuttgart win, the better this looks. There are real warnings here. Viking have won 14 of their last 19 games and tied 2-2 at Dinamo Zagreb in the play-off round, so they can hang around. Stuttgart also have eight players out, including both first choice keepers and two centre backs. We still want Stuttgart to win this by a clear margin.

💬 These two nearly always play quiet games against each other, and nothing about tonight looks different. Their last 13 meetings averaged just over 2 goals in total, and the last three finished 1-1, 1-0 and 1-1. Derby are the main reason to expect little again. They sit 21st on four points from five games with a goal difference of minus five, and their injury list has stripped the attack bare. Agyemang is out long term, Brewster is concussed, and Travis, Murkin and Forsyth are all missing too. West Brom are the opposite type of team. They have let in less than a goal a game over their last 16 and they travel well. They will be happy to sit in and let a blunt Derby pass the ball in front of them. Both sides have had four days off, so tired legs will not crack the game open either. We read this as a flat, slow night decided by one moment of West Brom quality, and a 0-1 away win is our call. There is a real warning though. West Brom have been better at the back than the chances they give up, so that record may not hold all season. Derby have also had 3 or more goals in 10 of their last 14 games. We still want the quiet game here.

💬 Norwich games are busy, and Birmingham turn up without the players who keep games quiet. That is the case for goals here. Norwich score 2 goals a game at Carrow Road, they beat Burnley 4-1 there, and their games have just over 3 goals in them on average. 10 of their last 13 had 3 or more goals. Birmingham are the only unbeaten team in the league and have tied six of their last 15, so they usually drag teams into 1-1s and 2-2s. The problem is their midfield. Bird, Leonard and Gardner-Hickman are all out, and Solis is missing for up to 10 days. That leaves two senior men to hold the middle of the pitch. Norwich should find room in front of that patched up midfield. Birmingham have also had a day less rest, three days to Norwich's four. They nearly always get on the board, so we expect them to score, and a 2-1 Norwich win is our read. That gives us the three goals we want. The risk is plain. Birmingham's away trips have been tight, under a goal scored and under a goal let in each time, and a 1-1 sits close behind our read. Norwich are up and down too, losing 0-3 at Millwall inside the last month. We still lean to the busier game.

💬 Neither of these teams can make chances right now, and that is the heart of the case. Charlton have created less than a goal's worth of chances a game over their last five. Their results have flattered them badly. QPR have been the better side in most parts of the game, but their attack is short too. Ilias Chair is out until the international break, Kone's situation is unclear, and Kemper is still hurt with an ankle problem. Charlton are in worse shape. They have six players out, including Godden and Chalobah, and McNamara is suspended after a red card. They were beaten 0-4 at Stoke last time out and have lost three of six at The Valley. The history between these clubs backs us up. Their last nine meetings averaged 2 goals in total, only a third of them had 3 or more goals, and the most recent was a 0-0. A scrappy London derby with few clear chances is the shape we see, and a 0-1 QPR win is our call. Now the warning. Charlton let in almost 2 goals a game, and 10 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals, so they can get taken apart. That 0-4 at Stoke shows how fast it can turn. We still want the low scoring game.

💬 Liverpool score plenty at home and let in just as much, and that mix is what we want. They tied 2-2 with both Newcastle and Nottingham Forest inside their last three league games, letting in two each time. At Anfield they score 2 goals a game. 11 of their last 18 games had 3 or more goals. Atletico turn up in poor shape on the road. They have lost five of their eight away games and let in 2 goals a trip, and they were beaten 0-3 at Athletic Club last weekend. Liverpool are without Ekitike, Bradley and Leoni, but they still carry far more attacking quality than this Atletico back line has handled lately. The meetings between these two back the busy game as well. The last five averaged more than 3 goals in total, and the most recent finished 3-2 to Liverpool. Our read is a 2-1 Liverpool win. That is right on the mark we need, so we want this loose pattern to hand us one more goal. The risk is Atletico. They have made less than a goal's worth of chances a game over their last four, so they have been scoring more than their play deserves. If they come to defend and nothing else, this stays tight. We are still on the goals here.

💬 Arsenal barely let in goals, and Napoli are in a real wobble. That is why we are with the away side. Arsenal have let in less than a goal a game across their last 17 games, and they have won 11 of them. They are just as tight on the road, letting in under a goal a trip across seven away games. They have not lost by 2 or more in any of those 17. Napoli have lost two in a row, 1-2 at home to Como and 2-3 at Inter, and their back line has been giving up far more than usual. They are also without Scott McTominay, who had heart surgery and is not due back until after the October break. Centre back Buongiorno is out as well. That takes the drive out of the midfield that has to carry Napoli forward. The Maradona will be loud and Napoli will have their spells, but Arsenal rarely need many chances to win a night like this. We see a controlled, tight game and a 0-1 Arsenal win. The one worry is Arsenal's own back line. Saliba is out with a back injury and Mosquera and Timber are both doubts, so a Napoli team with De Bruyne and Hojlund can hurt them. We are still backing Arsenal to take it.

💬 Galatasaray do not play quiet games. Twelve of their last 15 had 3 or more goals in them, and their games average more than 3 goals in total. They also do not tie on the road. Eight away trips this season have brought four wins and four losses, with no ties at all. They score almost 2 goals a trip and let in almost 2. Sporting are the better team here and should lead by the hour. They have won their last four games, they score 2 goals a game, and they score more than 2 a game at home. Galatasaray are without Victor Osimhen, who has an adductor strain after scoring six goals in four league games. Singo and Lemina are missing too, so the away side is short of its best. These clubs have never met before, so there is no history to lean on. A Galatasaray side that has to chase the game will leave gaps at the back, and Sporting punish that. Our read is a 2-1 Sporting win, and a third goal is where this starts paying. The honest worry is the home defense. Sporting have let in less than a goal a game, and with Osimhen out a 1-0 or 2-0 win for them is very live. We still want the goals, because Galatasaray keep coming forward even when it costs them.

💬 Leeds do not get beaten by big margins, and that is the case here. They have lost by 2 or more in only 1 of their last 17 games, and they let in just over a goal a game across that run. They also won 2-0 at Nottingham Forest in the last round, so they want this competition. Chelsea are the better side and have won 7 of the last 11 meetings, but they are not a team that wins big. They have won by 2 or more in just 2 of their last 14 games. Tonight they are expected to change their line up heavily, with starts talked about for Penders, Chavarria, Barco and Colwill. Henderson is out with a wrist injury. Chelsea also have three days rest after losing 1-2 at Arsenal. Leeds have four after a 1-1 tie at Brighton. Our read is a 2-1 Chelsea win, so Leeds have to stay within a goal, and staying close is what this Leeds team does best. Two risks stand out. Both managers will make a lot of changes, so the shape of either side is guesswork tonight. This is also a knockout tie, so a Leeds team chasing late could get caught on the break. We still think Leeds keep this close.

💬 Orlando take goals with them everywhere they go. Their nine away trips this season have averaged better than 5 goals between the two sides. They score more than 2 goals a trip and let in more than 2. Atlanta play the same kind of game. Thirteen of their last 20 had 3 or more goals, and they have scored twice in four of their last five. That run includes a 2-2 at Inter Miami last time out. Atlanta let in more than a goal a game at home and have won only three of seven at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Orlando are missing Ojeda, Marin and Miller. It has not slowed them down. Fifteen of their last 20 games had 3 or more goals, and they won the last meeting 4-1 in May. Both sides have had four days off, so nobody will be short of legs in an end to end derby. Two defenses that give up chances every week meet two attacks that are finding the net. We read this as a 2-2, and four goals is more than enough. The one thing against us is the history. These clubs have met 19 times, averaging more than 2 goals a game, and fewer than half of those meetings had 3 or more goals. Both attacks look better than that old record, so we are staying with the busy game.

💬 Columbus cannot win on the road. Seven away games this season have brought no wins, two ties and five losses, and they let in more than 2 goals a trip. They have also lost four of their last five games. Three forwards are out for them, with Abou Ali, Bangoura and Camacho all missing. Columbus arrive on four days rest, and DC have had 11 days to get ready. DC are not a good team either, and we are not pretending otherwise. They have won 3, tied 10 and lost 5 of their last 18 games. That tie habit is exactly what makes them worth backing here. They score more than a goal a game, and they create enough at Audi Field to hurt a side leaking goals away from home. History points the same way. The last 20 meetings have averaged 3 goals a game, with DC winning 6, tying 4 and losing 10. Our read is a 2-1 to DC, with Columbus getting one back from a set piece or a break. The risks are clear enough. DC have won only twice in ten at Audi Field and they let in more than 2 goals a game there. Columbus also beat Colorado 3-0 last time out, so they can still hurt someone. We are still with DC here.

💬 Charlotte are the better team by a distance. They sit 5th on 36 points with a goal difference of plus 8. Montreal are bottom of the Eastern Conference on 21 points with minus 18. Charlotte have won 8 of their last 19 games and have not lost any of their last five. Montreal are a different side at Saputo Stadium though. They have lost only two of their last twelve there and let in a goal a game at home. They tie a lot as well, with 7 ties in their last 20 games. Charlotte's problem is the road. They have won two of seven away and let in 2 goals a trip, against less than a goal at home. They are short of bodies too. Westwood is suspended after a red card, and Berchimas, John and Toffolo are all out. Expect a physical, low event game decided by set pieces and half chances, with each side finding one. Our read is a 1-1, and we are happy on Charlotte's side of that. The warning here is a real one. Montreal have won five of the last eight meetings between these clubs, and they are much better at home than their table position suggests. Charlotte have to grind this out with a patched up team. We still side with Charlotte.

💬 Philadelphia have been hard to beat on their own ground, and that is the main reason we are with the home side. They have won five, tied four and lost one of their last ten home games. They let in under a goal a game at Subaru Park and score more than a goal a game there, so they usually get their nose in front. Cincinnati sit higher up the East, but they travel badly. They have won one of their seven away games and let in more than 2 goals a game on the road. Their last league game was a 4-0 loss at Nashville. They are also missing S. Gidi, and K. Fletcher is a doubt with a knee problem. Philadelphia have won 10 of the last 20 meetings between these two, so the history sits with the hosts as well. Expect the Union to push early and lead, with Cincinnati carrying enough on the break to pull one back. A 2-1 home win is the read, and the more Philadelphia win by, the better this looks. The warning is a real one. Cincinnati have tied four of their seven away games, so a 1-1 is very much in play. They also come in on ten days of rest against four for Philadelphia, and fresher legs could keep this tight late on. We still want the home side to get the job done.