NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior — Tips & Analysis

Over 3.25: NEC keep letting goals in, and Excelsior keep scoring them. That is the case for a busy night at De Goffert. NEC let in almost 2 goals a game across their last 13, and at home it is the same story, with 2 wins, 1 tie and 3 losses. 10 of their last 13 games had 3 or more goals. They are also missing Kaplan, Fonville and Mor, and they just lost 1-3 at home to Feyenoord. Excelsior are flying. They sit fifth in the league with 9 points from 4 games, they score almost 2 goals a game, and more than 2 a game on the road. 11 of their last 15 games had 3 or more goals. The history says the same thing. These clubs have averaged just over 3 goals across 19 meetings, and more than half of those games had 3 or more goals. Put a leaky home side against a team playing with confidence and the goals should come. Our read is a 2-2, which is the open game we want. The risk is the recent history between them. NEC have won the last three meetings 2-0, 5-0 and 3-0, and Excelsior did not score in any of them. If NEC lead early and Excelsior go quiet again, this finishes too low. We still want the goals.