Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal — Tips & Analysis

Over 3: Dortmund are without both of their first choice centre backs, and that is the reason we want goals here. Schlotterbeck and Bensebaini are suspended, Emre Can is out with a knee injury, and seven Dortmund players miss out in total. The attack is untouched. Dortmund have won 11 of their last 15 games, they score just over 2 goals a game, and they have won 5 of their 7 home games. Their games have averaged just over 3 goals in total, and 9 of their last 15 had 3 or more. Villarreal are not a quiet side either. They score almost 2 goals a game, 10 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals, and their games average just over 3 in total. The three meetings between these clubs averaged just over 3 goals as well. So the shape of the night is clear. Dortmund push forward and win, and a patched up back line lets Villarreal onto the scoreboard, with 2-1 the likely score. We are backing this game to go a little past that. The warning is Villarreal's form. They have taken one point from their last three games. They also score just over a goal a game on the road, so they can go quiet for long spells. We still want the busier game.