Millwall vs Newcastle — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.75: Newcastle play in busy games, and a cup night with changed teams should keep this one open. Their games have averaged more than 3 goals in total, and 9 of their last 13 had 3 or more. They let in almost 2 goals a game, and on the road it is worse. Newcastle have won one of their six away games, letting in more than 2 a game. Millwall will not sit back either. They have won 7, tied 4 and lost 3 of their last 14, they score more than a goal a game, and they beat Bolton 4-0 on Saturday. At The Den they have four wins in six. Newcastle needed a 3-2 win over West Brom to get through the last round, and they are expected to change the team again. Millwall are missing six players of their own. Two patched up sides with three days rest usually means space and mistakes. Our read is a 1-2 Newcastle win. That gets the game to three goals, and a fourth would make it comfortable. The risk is Millwall's own habit. Only 5 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals, and they let in less than a goal a game at The Den. If Newcastle score early and slow it down, this can finish 0-1. We still want the goals here.