FC Porto vs Manchester City — Tips & Analysis

Under 3: Both of these teams defend well, and both are a piece short up front. That is why we are on the low scoring side of this one. Porto have won their last 5 games and are unbeaten in their last 11 at home, where they barely let in a goal. Across their last 18 games they have let in less than a goal a game, and their games have averaged just over 2 goals in total. They are also without eight players, including their striker Samu. City are the better team but they have not been running up scores. Their recent wins have mostly been narrow, 1-0 against Coventry and 2-1 against Bournemouth, with only a 4-1 at Crystal Palace looking comfortable. They lose Doku, and their new head coach has only just taken over. The last two meetings between these clubs averaged 2 goals in total, and one of them finished 0-0. A controlled, tight 1-1 in the opener reads truer than a City stroll, and that keeps the goal count where we want it. The risk is that City are simply a level above. Porto built that home record against the weaker teams in their own league, and 12 of City's last 17 games had 3 or more goals. If City go through them early, the goals follow. We still expect a tight, low scoring game.