Tips — Tuesday, 20 October 2026

💬 These two keep producing goals when they meet. The three previous meetings averaged more than 4 goals, and all three had 3 or more. Fenerbahce have been a different side in Istanbul. They have won 5, tied 2 and lost 1 at home, scoring more than 2 goals a game there. That run includes a 3-0 against Alanyaspor and an 8-0 against Eyupspor. Slavia Praha can score too. They score more than 2 goals a game, and 9 of their last 14 games have had 3 or more goals. The bigger point is what Slavia have lost at the back. Both first choice centre-backs are out, Ivan Ogbu with an Achilles problem and Stepan Chaloupek with a muscle injury. Tomas Chory is missing as well. Fenerbahce are short of defenders too, with Jayden Oosterwolde and Mert Muldur out. Neither side has a win in this competition yet, and that tends to open a game up after half time. A 2-1 to Fenerbahce is the most likely score. That is about the lowest we expect, and there is enough missing at both ends to push it higher. The honest warning is that Slavia are hard to score against on the road, letting in less than a goal a game. Only 8 of Fenerbahce's last 16 games have had 3 or more goals, and Slavia have scored once in their last three. We still want goals here, because neither back line looks able to keep this quiet.

💬 Both of these teams keep turning up in games full of goals, and that is why we want the busier game here. Sabah have won all eight home games in this run, scoring 3 goals a game and letting in less than one. They beat Slavia Praha 2-0 in Baku a week ago, so they will back themselves to score again. 10 of their last 17 games had 3 or more goals in them. Dortmund are the same. Their games average just over 3 goals in total, and 9 of their last 15 reached 3 or more. They score just over 2 goals a game and let in almost one, so they rarely keep things quiet at either end. The one time Sabah met a top side they lost 0-4 at Manchester United, and that game still had 4 goals in it. Sabah's other home game in this competition finished 5-2. Dortmund are much the better side and should win, with 1-2 the most likely score. That is only 3 goals, so we need a fourth from somewhere. The honest worry is Dortmund's poor run in front of goal. They have gone three games without a win and scored just two goals in them, including a 0-0 at Union Berlin. If they manage this one quietly and take a 1-0, we are nowhere. We still want the goals, because Sabah have to come out and attack at some point.

💬 Portsmouth come to Molineux with their team in pieces. Seven senior players are out, among them Arthur, Murphy, Ogilvie and Waddingham, and Anderson and Shaughnessy are doubtful. Colby Bishop joined that list after pulling up in the warm-up at Norwich. Wolves are the stronger side and they have the better ground to use. They score 2 goals a game at Molineux and let in just over a goal a game across six home games there. Wolves sit 8th in the table, with Portsmouth down in 13th. Portsmouth have lost four of their eight away games, and they do not make much happen. They score just over a goal a game away from home. Wolves have had four days to get ready for this, Portsmouth only three. Wolves are without Jimenez, who had knee surgery and is out until the new year, and Armstrong has a back problem. Mane and Bueno should be back. A 2-0 Wolves win is the most likely score, with the second goal arriving before the hour, and that is enough here. The catch is that Wolves have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 15 games. Portsmouth also won 1-0 at Norwich at the weekend, so they can dig in. We are still on Wolves, because a forward line this short of bodies rarely keeps a game close for 90 minutes.

💬 Alvechurch have been very hard to beat at their own ground, and that is the backbone of this pick. They have let in just five goals in nine home games there. Their last 16 games read nine wins, four ties and three losses, so they are well organised and in decent form. Spalding United come from a division higher, but their away football does not match the label. They have won just 2 of 9 games on the road, and they let in more than a goal a game away from home. Both teams had only three days off after their 2-2 on 17 October, so legs will be heavy and clear chances rare. A 1-1 looks the most likely score, and that suits us fine. Alvechurch do not need to win this one. They just need to avoid losing, and a tight, low-scoring replay gives them that. The worry is real though. Alvechurch have won only one of the last six meetings with Spalding, and they did not score in any of the four games before this month's 2-2. They were also kept out in two of their last three home games, losing 0-1 to Bury Town and tying 0-0 with Stourbridge. We are still with Alvechurch, because their home defending gives them a floor Spalding have not reached on the road.

💬 The first game between these two told the story. Anstey Nomads went to Macclesfield, played with ten men, and still came away with a 1-1. That is the shape of this replay too. Anstey have not been beaten at home in seven games there, and they let in under a goal a game on their own pitch. Anstey's keeper saved a Danny Elliott penalty in that first tie, after Courey Grantham had put Anstey ahead on 20 minutes. Macclesfield are the higher-level side and have lost just one of their last fifteen games. The catch is how they win. They have beaten a side by 2 or more goals only once in those fifteen games, and they score just over a goal a game on the road. Both sides had three days to recover. A replay that is level late tends to get managed rather than chased, because extra time is waiting. Another 1-1 looks the most likely score, and that keeps the goal count low. The risk sits with Anstey. Their own games are busier than this reads, with 13 of their last 19 producing 3 or more goals. If Macclesfield's extra quality turns one of those nights on, this goes wrong fast. We still want the quiet game, because the one meeting we have to go on was exactly that.

💬 These two met three days ago and did not manage a goal between them. That 0-0 at Altrincham's ground is the best guide we have to the replay. Altrincham are two divisions above United of Manchester, but they are a different team on the road. They have won 3 and lost 4 of their away games this season, and they score only a goal a game away from home. United of Manchester have tied 5 of their last 17 games, and their last three games were all ties. On their own pitch they score 2 goals a game across seven games at Broadhurst Park. They hold a good record in these meetings too. United of Manchester have not lost any of the last 3 games against Altrincham, and those games averaged under 3 goals. Both teams had the same three days to recover, so neither gets fresher legs. A replay that is level late tends to get managed rather than chased, because extra time is waiting. A 1-1 looks the most likely score, and that keeps the goal count down. The warning is that both teams' own games are busier than this reads. United of Manchester have had 3 or more goals in 10 of their last 17, and Altrincham in 11 of their last 15. We still want the quiet game, because the one meeting we have to go on gave us nothing at either end.

💬 Forest Green do not win games by big margins, and that is the whole case for Chesham United. Forest Green have won by 2 or more goals only once in their last 13 games. Their home record is the bigger problem. They have won 2, tied 1 and lost 4 at The New Lawn, and they let in more than 2 goals a game there. Their last five results read DLDDL. Chesham United come from the division below, but they score almost 2 goals a game and they already held Forest Green for 90 minutes. Ben Goode made a string of good stops in that 0-0 as Forest Green pressed after the break. Both sides had three days to recover, so a flat, stretched replay looks likely, and that helps the weaker team stay in it. A 2-1 Forest Green win is the most likely score, and this bet lives with that. Chesham only need to keep it close, not win it. The danger is their travelling. Chesham have lost five of their eight away games, and they let in more than 2 goals a game on the road. They have also been beaten by 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 18. If Forest Green finally turn their extra level into a big win, this is gone early. We still want Chesham, because Forest Green have not been beating anyone by that much.

💬 Gloucester City have already shown they can live with this. They kept Barrow out for 90 minutes at Holker Street, with Sam Kane in good form in goal and Barrow wasting what they made. Gloucester are also hard to beat by much. They have lost by 2 or more goals only once in their last 16 games, and they let in under a goal a game at home. Barrow are two divisions higher and arrive on a good run, with four straight wins before that 0-0, including a 4-2 at Southend. Their travelling is the soft spot. Barrow have won just 2 of their seven away games, and they let in more than a goal a game on the road. This is also a long Tuesday trip for them. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 3 of their last 15 games, so a big win is not their habit. Now the honest part. Barrow winning 1-0 is the most likely single score, and a one-goal defeat is not what we want here. Gloucester need to avoid losing, and their record says that is well within reach. The caution is Gloucester's thin home numbers. They have played only seven home games there, and they score just over a goal a game at that ground. They also let in five at Malvern Town last month. We are still with Gloucester, because Barrow have to win by more than they usually manage.

💬 Bury's record looks better than it really is, and that is the way into this replay. Their scoring numbers are built on 8-0 and 7-0 wins over much weaker teams, Wythenshawe Amateurs and Ilkeston Town among them. Away from Gigg Lane the picture changes. Bury have won 2 of their six games on the road and score just over a goal a game away from home. Harrogate Town are the full-time side here and they won four in a row before that 1-1. At home they score more than 2 goals a game across eight games there, and their last 15 read nine wins, two ties and four losses. The first tie finished 1-1 at Gigg Lane, where Bury had the crowd and the better of the second half. Kai Evans cancelled out Ciaran McGuckin's opener straight from a corner in front of more than 4,900 fans. Bury now lose that crowd, and they lose the part of their season that does the heavy lifting. A 2-1 Harrogate win is the most likely score, and that gets this home. Bury are not easy to break down though. They have let in about a goal a game across their last 16. A first round place for the first time since 2018 is real motivation too. We are still on Harrogate, because they only need to win the game, and before this tie they were doing exactly that.

💬 Worcester City's problem is a simple one. They do not score. They get less than a goal a game, and they have won by 2 or more goals only once in their last 17 games. Their games stay quiet as well. Eleven of those 17 finished with 2 goals or fewer, and not one of the 17 had as many as 5 goals in it. Chorley are the better team here. They play a division above Worcester City and they won four games in a row before the 1-1 between these two. Chorley do not need many goals to get through, though. They score under 2 goals a game, and that first tie at Victory Park produced only two goals in total. The replay brings the same two defences back together, with the same three days of rest each. A 1-0 Chorley win is the most likely score. One goal from the side a division higher, against a team that barely scores, is how these ties usually go. The risk is Chorley's own form. Their games average just over 3 goals, and they have had a 5-2 and a 4-1 in the last six weeks. We are happy with the low-scoring read, because Worcester City have given us no reason all season to expect anything else.

💬 The first tie between these two had six goals in it, and neither defence has looked fixed since. Yeovil led 2-0 at Fetcham Grove through Archie Davies and Brett McGavin. Leatherhead then scored three times in eight minutes, and Johl Powell had to rescue a 3-3 late on. Yeovil are two divisions higher and they score heavily on their own pitch. They get almost 3 goals a game across seven games at Huish Park, and they have won 6-0 twice in the last month. Leatherhead let in more than a goal a game. They were beaten 0-3 at Chatham Town this month and lost 1-2 at home to Cheshunt. They still carry a threat on the break, as those three quick goals showed. Busy games follow both teams around. Yeovil's games have almost 4 goals in them on average, with 3 or more goals in 9 of their last 14. Leatherhead have had 3 or more in 13 of their last 18. The winner of this goes to Chesterfield in the first round, so neither side will sit back. A 3-1 Yeovil win looks the most likely score, and that clears this comfortably. The risk is a controlled night. Yeovil let in just over a goal a game, so a tidy 2-0 is possible, and their big scoring numbers lean on those two 6-0 wins. We still want goals here, because the first tie showed us what happens when these two meet.

💬 PSV arrive at the Dragao without most of their forward line. Pepi, Plea and Lammers are all out, with Schouten, Wanner and Sildillia also missing and Til doubtful. That is the worst possible week to visit this ground. Porto have won 8 of their ten home games at the Dragao, and they have let in just 4 goals in those ten. They have won 13 of their last 17 games overall and they let in under a goal a game. Porto have had six days to prepare for this. PSV played three days ago and lost 1-2 away at ADO Den Haag. PSV let in more than a goal a game, and they have been giving up chances in volume lately. This is not about Porto being the better team. It is about where the game is played and who PSV can put on the pitch. Porto are missing William Gomes and Vasco Sousa, and Smalling, Gabriel Mec and Prpic are not registered for this competition. A 2-0 Porto win is the most likely score, and that is enough here. The warning is that PSV still score more than 2 goals a game, though those numbers were built with Pepi, Plea and Lammers playing. Porto have lost both of their Champions League games so far. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 7 of their last 17. We are still on Porto, because this is the one ground where they let nobody breathe.

💬 Liverpool have not been winning big, and that is the heart of this one. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 5 of their last 18 games. Anfield has also been their quietest ground. Across 11 home games they score under 2 goals a game, which is less than they manage away. Three games ago they lost 0-3 at home to Manchester City. Villarreal are better than their table spot suggests. They have won 5, tied 4 and lost 7 of their last 16 games. In their last five outings they have made far more chances than they have given up. They have also lost by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 16 games. The last four meetings between these two averaged under 3 goals, so these are not loose games. Liverpool are missing bodies as well, with Hugo Ekitike out with an Achilles problem and Jeremie Frimpong facing several weeks out. Expect Liverpool to go ahead and then spend the second half protecting it. A 2-1 Liverpool win is the most likely score, and a game that tight is what we want. The warning is Villarreal's away form. They have won 2, tied 2 and lost 5 on the road, and Liverpool have scored at least twice in 7 of their last 10 games. We still want Villarreal here, because Liverpool rarely pull clear at Anfield.

💬 Goals follow Manchester City around, and the Etihad has not been a quiet ground. 12 of City's last 17 games have had 3 or more goals. They have let in a goal in four of their last six at home. Paris Saint Germain beat them 4-2 there last week. City's home wins have been loose too, with a 3-2 against Ipswich, a 5-3 against Sunderland and a 2-1 against Bournemouth. They score almost 3 goals a game on their own pitch. AEK Athens are not here only to defend. They score more than 2 goals a game, and 8 of their last 13 games have had 3 or more goals. Most of that came against weaker Greek sides. Their one trip to a big team ended 1-3 at Shakhtar, which was another busy night. AEK also have a problem in goal. First choice keeper Thomas Strakosha is out with a wrist injury, so backup Alessandro Brignoli is set to start. City should keep making chances, and AEK carry enough to get one back. A 3-1 to City is the most likely score, and that gives us the four goals we want. The caution is that City can win these quietly, like the 1-0 against Coventry. Only 6 of their last 17 games have produced 4 goals or more, and a league game at the weekend means changes are likely. We are still on goals here, because City keep leaving the back door open at the Etihad.

💬 Barcelona come to Paris as the better team, and they have been winning without fuss. They have won 12 of their last 14 games, and 12 of those 14 were wins by 2 goals or more. Their attack is the main reason. Barcelona score almost 4 goals a game, and more than 3 a game on the road. They have scored at least three in each of their last five away games, including a 5-2 at Betis and a 4-1 at Galatasaray. Paris Saint Germain are flying as well, with five wins in a row. They do not keep games tight though. They let in more than a goal a game at their own ground, and they let in two at the Etihad last week in a 4-2 win. Paris have won by 2 or more goals in only 5 of their last 18 games. Both sides are missing defenders rather than forwards. Barcelona are without Jules Kounde, Eric Garcia and Andreas Christensen, and Paris lose Nuno Mendes for several weeks. The 13 previous meetings averaged 4 goals, so this should be open. A 3-2 win for Barcelona is the most likely score, decided late rather than early. The risk is real. Paris have won their last five games, and Barcelona's scoring numbers are lifted by a 7-2 win over weaker opposition. We still want Barcelona, because Paris keep letting teams score and this Barcelona side rarely wastes that.

💬 Atletico Madrid are a different team away from home, and that is the case for Stuttgart here. At their own ground Atletico let in less than a goal a game. On the road that jumps to more than a goal a game, and they have won 5 and lost 4 away. They do not win big either. Atletico have won by 2 or more goals in only 5 of their last 16 games, and they score under 2 goals a game. Stuttgart are solid at the MHP Arena. They have won 3 and lost 1 of their four games there, scoring more than 2 goals a game on that pitch. Atletico arrive on a run of five straight wins, but look at the scores. They beat Espanyol 1-0, Alaves 2-1 and Real Madrid 2-1. Those are narrow wins, not hammerings. Stuttgart are patching their back line, with Ameen Al-Dakhil out with a knee problem. Dan-Axel Zagadou and Maximilian Mittelstadt are both doubts. Both teams have had three days of rest, so neither side is fresher. Expect a controlled, physical game decided by one moment. A 1-1 is the most likely result, and Stuttgart staying level is exactly the game we are backing. The warning is Atletico's defense. They have kept four clean sheets in their last six games, and Stuttgart have lost three of their last five. We are still with Stuttgart, because this Atletico side rarely pulls clear of anyone.