Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC — Tips & Analysis

Over 3.5: Goals follow Manchester City around, and the Etihad has not been a quiet ground. 12 of City's last 17 games have had 3 or more goals. They have let in a goal in four of their last six at home. Paris Saint Germain beat them 4-2 there last week. City's home wins have been loose too, with a 3-2 against Ipswich, a 5-3 against Sunderland and a 2-1 against Bournemouth. They score almost 3 goals a game on their own pitch. AEK Athens are not here only to defend. They score more than 2 goals a game, and 8 of their last 13 games have had 3 or more goals. Most of that came against weaker Greek sides. Their one trip to a big team ended 1-3 at Shakhtar, which was another busy night. AEK also have a problem in goal. First choice keeper Thomas Strakosha is out with a wrist injury, so backup Alessandro Brignoli is set to start. City should keep making chances, and AEK carry enough to get one back. A 3-1 to City is the most likely score, and that gives us the four goals we want. The caution is that City can win these quietly, like the 1-0 against Coventry. Only 6 of their last 17 games have produced 4 goals or more, and a league game at the weekend means changes are likely. We are still on goals here, because City keep leaving the back door open at the Etihad.