FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven — Tips & Analysis

FC Porto -0.75: PSV arrive at the Dragao without most of their forward line. Pepi, Plea and Lammers are all out, with Schouten, Wanner and Sildillia also missing and Til doubtful. That is the worst possible week to visit this ground. Porto have won 8 of their ten home games at the Dragao, and they have let in just 4 goals in those ten. They have won 13 of their last 17 games overall and they let in under a goal a game. Porto have had six days to prepare for this. PSV played three days ago and lost 1-2 away at ADO Den Haag. PSV let in more than a goal a game, and they have been giving up chances in volume lately. This is not about Porto being the better team. It is about where the game is played and who PSV can put on the pitch. Porto are missing William Gomes and Vasco Sousa, and Smalling, Gabriel Mec and Prpic are not registered for this competition. A 2-0 Porto win is the most likely score, and that is enough here. The warning is that PSV still score more than 2 goals a game, though those numbers were built with Pepi, Plea and Lammers playing. Porto have lost both of their Champions League games so far. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 7 of their last 17. We are still on Porto, because this is the one ground where they let nobody breathe.