VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid — Tips & Analysis

VfB Stuttgart +0.5: Atletico Madrid are a different team away from home, and that is the case for Stuttgart here. At their own ground Atletico let in less than a goal a game. On the road that jumps to more than a goal a game, and they have won 5 and lost 4 away. They do not win big either. Atletico have won by 2 or more goals in only 5 of their last 16 games, and they score under 2 goals a game. Stuttgart are solid at the MHP Arena. They have won 3 and lost 1 of their four games there, scoring more than 2 goals a game on that pitch. Atletico arrive on a run of five straight wins, but look at the scores. They beat Espanyol 1-0, Alaves 2-1 and Real Madrid 2-1. Those are narrow wins, not hammerings. Stuttgart are patching their back line, with Ameen Al-Dakhil out with a knee problem. Dan-Axel Zagadou and Maximilian Mittelstadt are both doubts. Both teams have had three days of rest, so neither side is fresher. Expect a controlled, physical game decided by one moment. A 1-1 is the most likely result, and Stuttgart staying level is exactly the game we are backing. The warning is Atletico's defense. They have kept four clean sheets in their last six games, and Stuttgart have lost three of their last five. We are still with Stuttgart, because this Atletico side rarely pulls clear of anyone.