Liverpool vs Villarreal — Tips & Analysis

Villarreal +1.25: Liverpool have not been winning big, and that is the heart of this one. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 5 of their last 18 games. Anfield has also been their quietest ground. Across 11 home games they score under 2 goals a game, which is less than they manage away. Three games ago they lost 0-3 at home to Manchester City. Villarreal are better than their table spot suggests. They have won 5, tied 4 and lost 7 of their last 16 games. In their last five outings they have made far more chances than they have given up. They have also lost by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 16 games. The last four meetings between these two averaged under 3 goals, so these are not loose games. Liverpool are missing bodies as well, with Hugo Ekitike out with an Achilles problem and Jeremie Frimpong facing several weeks out. Expect Liverpool to go ahead and then spend the second half protecting it. A 2-1 Liverpool win is the most likely score, and a game that tight is what we want. The warning is Villarreal's away form. They have won 2, tied 2 and lost 5 on the road, and Liverpool have scored at least twice in 7 of their last 10 games. We still want Villarreal here, because Liverpool rarely pull clear at Anfield.