Harrogate Town vs Bury — Tips & Analysis

Harrogate Town -0.5: Bury's record looks better than it really is, and that is the way into this replay. Their scoring numbers are built on 8-0 and 7-0 wins over much weaker teams, Wythenshawe Amateurs and Ilkeston Town among them. Away from Gigg Lane the picture changes. Bury have won 2 of their six games on the road and score just over a goal a game away from home. Harrogate Town are the full-time side here and they won four in a row before that 1-1. At home they score more than 2 goals a game across eight games there, and their last 15 read nine wins, two ties and four losses. The first tie finished 1-1 at Gigg Lane, where Bury had the crowd and the better of the second half. Kai Evans cancelled out Ciaran McGuckin's opener straight from a corner in front of more than 4,900 fans. Bury now lose that crowd, and they lose the part of their season that does the heavy lifting. A 2-1 Harrogate win is the most likely score, and that gets this home. Bury are not easy to break down though. They have let in about a goal a game across their last 16. A first round place for the first time since 2018 is real motivation too. We are still on Harrogate, because they only need to win the game, and before this tie they were doing exactly that.