Alvechurch vs Spalding United — Tips & Analysis

Alvechurch +0.25: Alvechurch have been very hard to beat at their own ground, and that is the backbone of this pick. They have let in just five goals in nine home games there. Their last 16 games read nine wins, four ties and three losses, so they are well organised and in decent form. Spalding United come from a division higher, but their away football does not match the label. They have won just 2 of 9 games on the road, and they let in more than a goal a game away from home. Both teams had only three days off after their 2-2 on 17 October, so legs will be heavy and clear chances rare. A 1-1 looks the most likely score, and that suits us fine. Alvechurch do not need to win this one. They just need to avoid losing, and a tight, low-scoring replay gives them that. The worry is real though. Alvechurch have won only one of the last six meetings with Spalding, and they did not score in any of the four games before this month's 2-2. They were also kept out in two of their last three home games, losing 0-1 to Bury Town and tying 0-0 with Stourbridge. We are still with Alvechurch, because their home defending gives them a floor Spalding have not reached on the road.