Congo DR vs Equatorial Guinea — Tips & Analysis

Under 2.5: Congo DR do not need a big win here, and that suits this pick. They let in less than a goal a game, and only 6 of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals. Congo DR score just over a goal a game. They take their chances rather than make a pile of them, so they go in front and then control things. Their recent run shows the level they are at. They tied 1-1 with Portugal, beat Uzbekistan 3-1 and lost 1-2 to England in the World Cup last 16. Equatorial Guinea will not open this up. They score under a goal a game, have lost 7 of their last 12 games and arrive on 267 days without a competitive game. Their plan will be to sit deep and keep the damage to one goal. They usually manage it, and have lost by 3 or more goals only twice in their last 12. Congo DR also play again on 28 September, so there is every reason to ease off once they are ahead. A 2-0 home win is the likely script, and that is a winning result for us. The one worry is that 6 of Equatorial Guinea's last 12 games had 3 or more goals, so they can get dragged into open games. An early goal at either end would change the shape of this. We still want the quiet game.