Netherlands vs Germany — Tips & Analysis

Germany +0.25: This game is close almost every time it is played. The last four meetings finished 0-1, 2-2, 1-2 and 1-1, so a single goal or a tie has decided each one. The Netherlands have not lost any of their last 16 games, but they tied 7 of them, and most of those ties came against good teams. They are strong in Amsterdam, winning 5 and tying 4 of their last 9 home games. The problem is who is missing. Frenkie de Jong, Xavi Simons, Matthijs de Ligt, Donyell Malen and Justin Kluivert are all out, and Memphis Depay was not called up. Germany are just as thin, without Florian Wirtz, Nick Woltemade, Aleksandar Pavlovic, Leon Goretzka and Deniz Undav. Both teams also have a new manager in charge for a first competitive game. Two patched squads and two new plans usually mean a careful night, not an open one. Germany are no passengers either. They score more than 2 goals a game and have won 9 of their last 16. A 1-1 is the read, and that is the sort of night we want Germany for. The risk is plain. The Dutch score 3 goals a game and have not lost at home in that run, so an early goal could let them take over. We are happy to back Germany to avoid defeat.