China vs Maldives — Tips & Analysis

Maldives +4: China win this game. They just do not win games by a lot any more, and that is the point of this pick. China have won by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 17 games. They are struggling badly as well. They have won 5, tied 1 and lost 11 of those 17. They score less than a goal a game. Their best recent results against teams of this kind are a 2-0 over Curacao and 1-0 wins over Hong Kong and Bahrain. That is a team who grind out narrow wins, not a team who run up scores. The Maldives are poor and they know it. They have lost 8 of their last 11 games and all six of their last away trips. They let in more than 2 goals a game on those trips. They are set up to survive, with a packed midfield and Ali Haisham alone up front. A plan like that usually keeps the score down. A 2-0 to China is the most likely score, and that suits us fine. The one worry is history. China won all four past meetings 5-0, 5-0, 4-0 and 3-0. Those were stronger China teams than this one, and this one barely scores. We are happy to take the Maldives.