Tips — Wednesday, 23 September 2026

💬 Ventforet Kofu barely score, and that is the main reason we want the quieter game. They score under a goal a game across their 12 away games, and they were kept quiet in three of their last six on the road. Their games have had just over 2 goals in them on average. Kashima are a different team at Mercari Stadium. They have won 7 of their 9 home games there, scoring more than 2 a game and letting in under a goal a game. That is the profile of a side that gets in front and then controls the rest. These two clubs know each other well. Kashima have won 8, tied 3 and lost 4 of the last 15 meetings, and those games have had just over 2 goals on average. Both teams have had four days off. A 2-0 Kashima win is the most likely finish, and that sits comfortably on our side. Now the warning, because it is a real one. Kashima's games across the season have had more than 3 goals on average. They have also let in a goal in each of their last five, including a 3-3 and a 7-1. Three of those five came away from home. Kashima have still let in under a goal a game at Mercari, but a cup tie with changed teams can still get loose. We still want the low scoring game.

💬 This one is built to stay tight. Imabari have kept games to 3 goals or fewer in 16 of their last 19. Kashiwa have done the same in 12 of theirs. Kashiwa are the higher division side and have the better players, but they are oddly flat at their own ground. They have won 5 and lost 5 there, scoring and letting in more than a goal a game. They also needed a 2-1 to get past university side Senshu in the last round. Eleven of their 19 games were decided by a single goal. Imabari are having a hard season with 5 wins from 19, but they are harder to beat away from home. They have tied 3 of their 10 road games and they beat Sagan Tosu 1-0 on 12 September. Kashiwa played just 3 days ago, so changes are likely and the tempo should drop. A 2-1 Kashiwa win is the read here. That is a contained game where the better side finds a way through without ever pulling clear, and it is the shape we want. The warning is real though. Kashiwa's recent games have been open at both ends, and 10 of their last 19 finished with 3 or more goals. If these two start trading early, it gets away from us fast. We still want the quieter game.

💬 Kyoto cannot put teams away, and that is the heart of this one. They score just a goal a game and have not won by 2 or more in any of their last 19. Kyoto have won only 5 of those 19 games. They needed a 1-0 to see off amateur side Maruyasu Okazaki in the last round, which tells you where they are. Fujieda arrive in better shape and they do not get dragged into open games. They have won 7 and tied 7 of their last 18 and let in about a goal a game. Eleven of those 18 games finished with 2 goals or fewer. Neither side turns matches into shootouts. A 1-1 is the read here, a scrappy, low grade game that Kyoto cannot finish off. There is a knockout angle too. A tie after ninety minutes means extra time, so both teams have a reason to be careful late rather than throw bodies forward. The warning is Kyoto's defending. They let in more than 2 goals a game at their own ground, which is their worst record anywhere. Fujieda also scored five at Montedio Yamagata in the last round, so they are not short of a goal when a game opens up. We still expect a quiet afternoon.

💬 Machida grind games out rather than blow teams away, and that is why Tochigi can stay close. Machida have tied 7 of their last 19 games and won by three or more only 3 times. They have lost just once in 19 and let in under a goal a game, so the quality is not in doubt. The schedule is the problem. This is their third game in seven days, and they lost 2-4 at their own ground to Kashiwa on 20 September, days after a midweek cup game. Changes are likely. Tochigi are a proper side at this level. They have won 9 of their last 19 and score almost 2 goals a game. On the road they score and let in just over a goal a game. They have already won 4-1 at Consadole Sapporo and 3-1 at Sagan Tosu this season. That is a team that gets on the scoresheet. A 2-1 Machida win is the read, and Tochigi stay close enough in that game. The risk is that Machida are still playing well underneath the results. They have created plenty in their last two games and have won by 2 or more in 8 of their last 19. Tired legs and a stubborn opponent still point to a narrow game.

💬 Iraq have not lost to Oman in their last six meetings. They won three of those and tied the other three. The two most recent games both finished 1-0 to Iraq. Iraq also name close to their strongest group for this one. Zidane Iqbal, Ali Al-Hamadi, Ali Jasim and Ayman Hussein are all available, with only Kevin Yakob out injured. Their last three losses came against Norway, France and Senegal at the World Cup, so those results say little about this level. Iraq have won 8 of their last 17 games. Oman have not played a competitive game in 289 days, against 89 days for Iraq. They score less than a goal a game and have not won by 2 or more in their last 14. The last six meetings between these two averaged under 2 goals in total. This one is on neutral ground in Jeddah, so neither side gets a crowd behind them. Expect a slow, tight game decided by one moment, a set piece or a late goal. A 1-0 win for Iraq is the most likely finish, and that gets the job done. The catch is that Oman are hard to beat. They have lost only 3 of their last 14 games and tied 7 of them. That long lay-off could also leave them fresh rather than rusty. Iraq still have the better players available and the recent history, so we are with them.

💬 Seattle cannot win football games right now, and that is the case for backing Real Salt Lake. The Sounders have tied their last five games in a row and have won only 3 of their last 20. They have won by 2 or more goals just once in those 20 games. A heavy home win is simply not in them at the moment. Their attack is also picked apart, with five forward line players missing, including Ferreira, de la Vega and Rothrock. Real Salt Lake are not in good form either. They have no win in ten away games and score under a goal a game on the road. Seven of their own players are out, including Diego Luna. What helps them is the matchup. Salt Lake have won 10 of the last 20 meetings with Seattle, more than the Sounders have. Those 20 games have also been quiet, averaging just under 2 goals, and the last five produced 3, 1, 2, 2 and 2 goals. Both teams have had the same four days off. A 1-1 tie looks like the most likely finish, and that is exactly where we want to be. The worry is a fair one. Salt Lake are poor on the road, and this is the kind of night a struggling home side finally wins one. We are still with Salt Lake to keep this close.