Tips — Wednesday, 16 September 2026

💬 Both of these teams have been quiet in front of goal, and that is the case for a low-scoring night. This one is played on neutral ground in Japan, so neither side gets a home crowd. Thailand let in just over a goal a game across their last 12, with goalless ties against China and Myanmar in there. Their scoring numbers lean on a 6-0 over Mongolia and a 4-0 over Timor-Leste. Against better teams they tied 0-0 with China and 1-1 with Iraq. Kyrgyzstan have been worse. They lost all three of their Asian Cup group games in January, 0-1 to Jordan, 1-2 to Vietnam and 0-1 to Saudi Arabia. They scored once in those three games. Away from home they have won once in five and score less than a goal a game. Neither squad has played a competitive game in about eight months, and a first group game is rarely a loose one. Thailand have also tied five of their last 12 games, which fits the same picture. A 1-0 is the likeliest score, and that lands this one well inside. The honest worry is that 7 of Thailand's last 12 games had 3 or more goals in them. Both sides have let in goals in most of their recent games too, and eight months off can make defences rusty. We still want the quiet game here.

💬 Jeonbuk tie a lot of games, and that is the heart of this pick. They have tied 8 of their last 20 games and 3 of their last 5. They do not score much, just over a goal a game, but they are hard to break down and let in less than a goal a game. Their games bring just over 2 goals in total, and only 7 of those 20 had 3 or more goals in them. Kashiwa are the opposite kind of team. They have won 10 and lost 9 of their last 19, with no ties at all. Their games average almost 3 goals, and they have lost by 2 or more goals in 4 of those 19. They also come in on patchy form, beaten 2-0 twice in the last two weeks before a 3-2 win at Kyoto. Jeonbuk play this at their own ground in Jeonju and have won both of the last two meetings between the clubs. A 1-1 is the likeliest score, and Jeonbuk avoiding defeat is all this asks of them. The one thing that worries us is that zero in the Kashiwa tie column. They have not tied any of their 19 games, so this result tends to break one way. Jeonbuk also lost 1-2 at home to FC Seoul last weekend. We still trust them to stay in this game.

💬 Sparta come to Yerevan with eight players unavailable, seven injured and one suspended, and that is the main reason we are with the home side. Ararat-Armenia have made this ground a hard trip. They have won 8 of their last 10 home games and let in less than a goal a game there. They beat Celje 2-1 and Universitatea Craiova 1-0 in Yerevan this summer. Across their last 18 games they have won 11, tied 2 and lost 5, and they have lost by 2 or more goals just twice in that run. Sparta are the better team on paper. They score almost 2 goals a game and have won 9 of their last 15. Their away form is all over the place though. They won 4-0 at Artis but lost 0-3 at Lyon, 0-2 at Mlada Boleslav and 1-2 at Hradec Kralove. They also play this four days after a league game, at the end of a long trip east. A 1-1 is the likeliest score here, and that is exactly the kind of night we want. The danger is recent history. Sparta beat Ararat-Armenia twice last year, 2-1 and 4-1, and those two games averaged 4 goals. Sparta have also won by 2 or more goals in 7 of their last 15 games. We still expect Ararat-Armenia to keep this close.

💬 Celta cannot score at the moment, and that is the whole case for a quiet night. They have managed three goals in their last six league games, including 0-0 at Real Sociedad and 0-0 at Valencia. Across their last 15 games they have won 3, tied 5 and lost 7, scoring less than a goal a game. Their away trips are even flatter, with 1 win, 4 ties and 2 losses and under a goal a game scored on the road. Iago Aspas is out with a muscle problem, and A. Antanon has an ankle injury too. Omonia are built much the same way. They have won 9, tied 4 and lost 3 of their last 16, letting in less than a goal a game. Only 6 of those 16 games had 3 or more goals in them. At GSP this summer they won 1-0 against Kairat Almaty and 1-0 against Lincoln Red Imps, and last weekend they were held 0-0 at home by Apollon Limassol. Two careful teams in the first game of the league phase point one way. A 1-0 to Omonia is the likeliest score, and a night like that is exactly what we want. The catch is that Omonia also beat St Truiden 4-2 here, so they can be pulled into an open game. Celta have the better players and one good spell would change this. We still want the quiet game.

💬 AIK have stopped protecting their own goal at home, and that is the main reason we want goals here. They have lost five of their seven home games this season. Four days ago Vasteras beat them 4-1 on that same pitch. AIK's games have just over 3 goals in them on average, and 12 of their last 18 have finished with 3 or more. Mjallby arrive in poor shape. They have taken one point from their last five games and let in fourteen goals in that run. They have not won any of their seven away games. On the road they score less than a goal a game and let in more than 2. AIK have the better squad and should win this one, but nine of their players are listed out, including centre-back Papagiannopoulos. A clean sheet would be well out of character for them. So the shape is AIK winning a game they also leak in. A 2-1 to the hosts is the most likely score, and that gets us home. The worry is the history between them. These two have averaged just over 2 goals across their last fourteen meetings, and Mjallby only score about a goal a game. A beaten side can sit deep and keep a night like this quiet. We still want the busier game, because AIK's back line has not looked like keeping anyone out for weeks.

💬 Atletico are short of strikers, and that is why we like Osasuna to stay close. Sorloth has been out for a month with a muscle problem and has not trained on the pitch. Barrios is out too, and Julian Alvarez is a doubt after missing group training. Atletico have also been scoring more than their chances deserve. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 16 games. Osasuna are better at the back than their results suggest. They have lost by 2 or more in just 2 of their last 15 games. They let in more than a goal a game. Herrando, Oroz, Gomez and Rosier are all missing, so they will set up to defend and stay in it. Atletico have had three days since their last game, one less than Osasuna, with a derby against Real Madrid to come. That makes changes to their team likely. A grinding 1-0 to the hosts is the likeliest score, and Osasuna losing that narrowly still works for us. The risk here is real. Atletico have won seventeen of the last twenty meetings between these two, and they put three past Real Sociedad on Sunday. If Alvarez is passed fit and starts, this can turn into a comfortable home win. We still think Osasuna keep the margin down.

💬 Deportivo are a hard team to beat, but they do not blow anyone away. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 3 of their last 13 games. They came up from the second tier, and five of their last ten results were earned down there. As a team they create very little, and one man is carrying them. Aubameyang has scored in all five of their league games since joining this summer. Sevilla have won 7 of their last 13 games and three of their last five. They score more than a goal a game and let in about the same. They also arrive fresher, with five days since their last game against Deportivo's three. That counts for something in a busy week. Six of Deportivo's thirteen games have finished with exactly two goals, so a tight, low-scoring night is the normal outcome at Riazor. A 1-1 is the likeliest score here, and a tie suits us. The caution is that Sevilla travel badly. They have won only 2 of their 6 away games and let in more than a goal a game on the road. Deportivo have also lost just 1 of their last 13 and will back themselves in front of their own crowd. We still make Sevilla the better side and expect them to come away with something.

💬 Wolves are a soft touch on the road, and that is the case for backing Everton here. Wolves have won 3, tied 2 and lost 4 of their last nine away games. They score just over a goal a game on those trips and let in 2. That is the sort of travelling form a decent home side punishes. Everton have been scoring freely on their own ground, where they average 2 goals a game across six matches. Nine of their last 13 games have had 3 or more goals in them. Wolves are missing Said and Mosquera, and Everton lose only Norgaard, so both should name close to their strongest teams. That suits Everton, because the gap in quality is on their side. They have also had four days since their last game, one more than Wolves. Expect an open cup tie that Everton control for long spells. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest score, and we want Everton to win this one properly. The one thing that stops them is their habit of tying games. Everton have tied six of their last 13, including three league games in a row. These two are close over their last twenty meetings as well, with Everton winning 7 and Wolves 8. Even so, Everton are the stronger team here and we are happy to take them.

💬 Fleetwood turn games into slow, tight nights, and that is what we are backing here. They have tied seven of their last 13 games, and 10 of those 13 finished within a single goal. Only 5 of their last 13 have had 3 or more goals in them. At home they let in about a goal a game across eight matches, and they have come through both cup rounds without letting one in. Sheffield United are the better team on paper, but they are not set up to blow this open. They are unbeaten in seven away games and let in less than a goal a game in them. They also arrive three days after a home defeat by Wolves, with Seriki, Burrows, Chong and One all out. Two of their last three league games ended in defeat and changes are expected, so this will not be their strongest eleven. Put a shuffled side against a stubborn home team and goals are usually hard to come by. A 1-1 is the likeliest score, and that is a comfortable night for us. The risk is clear enough. Sheffield United are two divisions higher, and 10 of their last 14 games have had 3 or more goals. If they name a strong team and score early, this can open right up. We still expect a tight, low-scoring tie.

💬 Coventry cannot score right now, and that is the case for Villa. Coventry have not scored in four Premier League games this season. They lost 0-5 to Brighton, 0-1 at Manchester City, 0-1 to Hull and 0-3 at Arsenal. They are also without a proper centre forward. Haji Wright is injured and Taiwo Awoniyi is starting a three game ban for violent conduct. Eccles, Woolfenden and Kesler-Hayden are missing too. Villa are hardly flying either. They have won 5, tied 2 and lost 7 of their last 14 games, and they score just over a goal a game on the road. But they beat Club Brugge 3-2 a week ago, and even a changed Villa team has better players than this Coventry side. That gap should decide a nervous cup tie. A 0-1 to Villa is the likeliest score, and a narrow away win is all we need. The doubts here are real. Villa are in the Champions League and may make wholesale changes, which would hand Coventry a way in. Coventry have also won 9 of their last 17 games, so they are not a bad team, just one that cannot find a goal. We still make Villa the side to come through.

💬 Both managers look set to change nearly their whole team, and both are changing goalkeeper. Karl Darlow could make his debut for United. Jason Steele comes in for Brighton, with five summer signings in line for their first starts. Two unfamiliar back lines in a cup tie usually means an untidy, open night rather than a careful one. The history backs that up. The last twenty meetings have averaged just over 3 goals, and the last five read 3-0, 1-2, 4-2, 1-3 and 1-2. United score more than 2 goals a game and 10 of their last 14 games finished with 3 or more. Brighton are no different. They scored five at Coventry and four against Aston Villa inside their last five games. Ten of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals in them. A 2-1 to United is the likeliest score, so we want one more goal than that. Two attacking teams with patched up defences should get there. The risk is the other side of all those changes. New teams can be scrappy and slow, and both sides played three days ago, so tired legs could keep this flat. Brighton have also let in only about a goal a game. We still want the busy, messy night here, because neither back line will have played together.

💬 Milan do not score enough to bully anyone, and that is why we are with Benfica here. Milan score just over a goal a game, and their matches have just over 2 goals in them on average. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 16 games, and they have lost three of their seven at home. This is a team that wins tight or does not win at all. Benfica are on a proper run. They have won 12 and lost only 1 of their last 17 games, and their last five have all ended in wins. On the road they let in less than a goal a game. The honest part is where those goals came from. Benfica built that record against Casa Pia, Moreirense, Maritimo, Aarhus and Hearts, so nobody should expect them to pull Milan apart. What they should do is defend well and take something from the night. A 1-1 looks like the likeliest score, and a tie suits us fine. There are two things to watch. Milan are fully fit and unbeaten in four league games under their new manager. Benfica have a day less rest and are without Alexander Bah. Milan getting on top early at home is the danger. We are still happy to back Benfica to hold firm.

💬 Anderlecht have been very hard to beat at Lotto Park, and that is the main reason we are with them. They are unbeaten in eight home games this season, six wins and two ties. In those games they score more than 2 goals a game and let in under a goal. Lyon are a good side, but they travel far less well than they play at home. They have won two, tied two and lost two of their six away games. On those trips they score just over a goal a game and let in about one. That is not a team that comes here and takes a game away from you. Anderlecht have been grinding out 1-0s and 0-0s in the league, so expect a tight night with few clear chances. Both sides look set to keep their shape and wait for a mistake. A 1-1 is the likeliest score, and Anderlecht avoiding defeat is all this asks of them. The worry is who the hosts are missing. Sardella, Hey, Camara and Koutsoupias are all out, and Ambros is a doubt, so the hosts will be missing five of their squad. Lyon have won by 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 14 games, so they can turn a tight night into a clear win. We still make Anderlecht tough enough to come out of this with something.

💬 Celje are in poor shape and Leverkusen should be far too strong for them at the BayArena. Celje have lost four of their last five games. They were beaten 4-1 at Brinje-Grosuplje, 1-0 at home by Koper and 2-1 at Bravo. Leverkusen score more than 2 goals a game and their games have almost 4 goals in them on average. Nine of their last 12 games finished with 3 or more goals, so the goals are usually there. What we need is a three-goal win, and that is the honest ask here. The likeliest score is 3-1, a comfortable home win but one goal short of what we want. Leverkusen do not keep clean sheets. They let in more than a goal a game, including three at second tier Elversberg and two at Augsburg last weekend. Celje should get something at the other end, and that is what makes the margin tricky. Two things give us pause. Leverkusen have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 12 games, so big wins are not their habit. Six players are out, including Boniface and Tella, and with a league game to follow more changes are likely. We still want Leverkusen, because Celje have been beaten too often lately to hold out for ninety minutes.

💬 Beer Sheva are leaking goals and they are not really at home for this one. The game is being played at the Superbet Arena in Bucharest, not at their own ground, so their crowd will not be behind them. They have let in more than 2 goals a game across their nine home games. In the last month they lost 1-4 to Maccabi Tel Aviv and 2-5 at Sabah, and they were beaten 0-4 at Hapoel Haifa. They are short of bodies as well. Diop and Peretz are both suspended after red cards, and Biton, Levy and Stoyanov are out. Dinamo Zagreb are the stronger side by some way. They have won 9, tied 4 and lost 2 of their last 15 games, and they score more than 2 goals a game. They should find chances against this back line, and a goal at either end looks likely. A 1-2 to Dinamo is the likeliest score, and a narrow away win is enough for us. Two things could spoil it. Dinamo are far from solid themselves. They lost 2-4 at Osijek and 1-3 at Viking, and they have won three and lost two of their seven away games. Beer Sheva have won 8 of their last 16 games and will fancy catching them on the break. We still make Dinamo good enough to win this.

💬 Olympiakos have become one of the quietest home teams around, and that is why we want the low score. Across seven home games they score less than a goal a game and let in under a goal. Only 4 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them, and their games average just over 2 goals in total. They are also short of forwards. El Kaabi has a broken leg, Yazici and Roca are hurt, and Fortounis is suspended after a red card. That is their main goal threat gone. Jagiellonia are a decent side who knocked Rangers out over two legs, so they will not be overawed. But they have just lost 0-2 at Wisla Krakow, and they lost 0-2 at home to Widzew last month. They let in just over a goal a game, so they are not a wide open team either. This has the look of a tight, careful night where a point suits both of them. A 1-1 is the likeliest score, and that is exactly the sort of game we are backing. The warning is what Jagiellonia do on the road. They score almost 2 goals a game on their travels, and 8 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals. An early goal for the visitors would force Olympiakos out and open this up. We still expect a quiet night in Piraeus.

💬 Sturm Graz are hard to beat in Graz, and that is the main reason we are with them. They have lost only one of their last six home games, letting in less than a goal a game at the Merkur-Arena. Across their last 14 games they have won 9, tied 2 and lost 3. They score almost 2 goals a game and let in under one. Rennes are a good side in form. They have won 8, tied 2 and lost 3 of their last 13 games. That run includes a 1-0 win over Marseille and a 2-2 tie with Paris Saint-Germain. The catch is what happens when they travel. Rennes let in just over 2 goals a game on the road. They have also won by 2 or more goals in only 1 of their last 13 games, so big away wins are not their thing. These two clubs have never met, so there is no history to lean on. A 1-1 is the likeliest score, and Sturm avoiding defeat is all this asks of them. The worry is at the other end. Sturm did not score in either play-off game against Fenerbahce, losing 0-1 at home and 0-2 away. Rennes have better forwards than the teams Sturm face in their own league, and Sturm have had two days less rest. We still make Sturm tough enough to come out of this level.

💬 Barcelona are scoring at will and this game should be wide open. They have won five La Liga games in a row and scored 21 goals doing it. At the Camp Nou they have won all six of their home games, scoring 3 goals a game and letting in under one. Racing Santander are fun to watch rather than solid. They score more than 2 goals a game and let in more than one. Their games have just over 4 goals in them on average, and 11 of their last 14 finished with 3 or more. On the road Racing score just over a goal a game and let in almost 2. They have scored in four of their five league games, so they should get one back here. That points to a busy night. Barcelona go in front early, Racing chase the game, and space opens up late. A 3-1 is the likeliest score, and we want this one to get past four goals. Barcelona have had 9 of their last 14 games finish with 3 or more goals, so the big scores keep coming. The catch is history. The last five meetings between these two averaged under 3 goals in total, and Barcelona won the most recent one 2-0. Barcelona are in the Champions League too, so they may change their team against a promoted side. We still want the goals here.

💬 Levante are a different team at home, and that is the case for backing them. At the Estadio Ciudad de Valencia they have won 5 and lost 1, scoring more than 2 goals a game. On the road they have won just once in eight. The setting matters more here than the league table does. Athletic Club have been poor away from San Mames. They have lost four of their last six away games and let in just over 2 goals a game on those trips. Across their last 11 games they have won 3, tied 2 and lost 6. Both teams arrive damaged. Levante are without Etta Eyong, Primo and Sotelo, so the attack that put five past Real Betis is missing its main man. Athletic have lost Vivian and Egiluz at centre back, and Canales and Guruzeta are both doubtful. Two patched up sides usually means a scrappy game with few clear chances. A 1-1 is the likeliest score, and Levante avoiding defeat is all this needs. The worry is history. Athletic have had the better of these two for years. Levante have won 2 and lost 14 of the last 20 meetings, and the last two went 0-2 and 2-4. Levante's home record also leans on a 5-2 win over Real Betis, and they were beaten 2-4 at home by Barcelona in the same run. We still back Levante to hold firm.