Manchester United vs Brighton — Tips & Analysis

Over 3: Both managers look set to change nearly their whole team, and both are changing goalkeeper. Karl Darlow could make his debut for United. Jason Steele comes in for Brighton, with five summer signings in line for their first starts. Two unfamiliar back lines in a cup tie usually means an untidy, open night rather than a careful one. The history backs that up. The last twenty meetings have averaged just over 3 goals, and the last five read 3-0, 1-2, 4-2, 1-3 and 1-2. United score more than 2 goals a game and 10 of their last 14 games finished with 3 or more. Brighton are no different. They scored five at Coventry and four against Aston Villa inside their last five games. Ten of their last 16 games had 3 or more goals in them. A 2-1 to United is the likeliest score, so we want one more goal than that. Two attacking teams with patched up defences should get there. The risk is the other side of all those changes. New teams can be scrappy and slow, and both sides played three days ago, so tired legs could keep this flat. Brighton have also let in only about a goal a game. We still want the busy, messy night here, because neither back line will have played together.