Tips — Tuesday, 15 September 2026

💬 Genoa cannot score, and that is the case for Sudtirol staying in this tie. Genoa have managed under a goal a game all season, with just 4 wins in their last 15. Their home form is worse again. They have won 2 and lost 5 of their eight home games, letting in almost 2 goals a game in front of their own crowd. De Rossi is changing the side heavily too. El Shaarawy and Havel lead the attack, with Stolz in goal and a much changed back line behind them. Sudtirol are no great attacking force themselves. They have tied 9 of their last 18 games and score a goal a game. What they do well is stay in games. Sudtirol have lost by 2 or more goals in only 3 of their last 18. They arrive unbeaten in Serie B, after knocking Catanzaro out on penalties. Expect a slow, tight cup night decided by one moment. The honest read is a scruffy 1-0 to Genoa, and that is not quite the result this pick needs. We want Sudtirol to take this one to the wire, and a 0-0 after 90 minutes is a very live outcome. The warning is Genoa's cup form. They beat Ascoli 4-1 at home in the last round, so their cup side can punish a lower division team. We still think Sudtirol keep this close.

💬 Rayo have lost the two players who make almost everything they create, and both went in the same week. Isi Palazon is out with a muscle injury and Jorge de Frutos is suspended. Centre back Luiz Felipe and goalkeeper Augusto Batalla are out too. Rayo sit 16th on 4 points and have let in 6 more goals than they have scored. They have won 7 of their last 16 games and score fewer than 2 goals a game. Espanyol are no better going forward, but they do defend. They let in just over a goal a game. Their games have just over 2 goals in them on average, among the quietest on the card. They are without Javi Puado and Kike Garcia, so neither team has a full strength attack. The history helps us as well. Espanyol have won four of the last five meetings, including a 4-0 in Vallecas. This one is not even at Vallecas. It is at Butarque in Leganes, so Rayo's home run comes on a borrowed ground. A 1-1 is the most likely finish, and that is a result this pick is happy with. The one warning is that Rayo have not lost in seven home games. We still want Espanyol to come away from Madrid with something.

💬 Ajax will almost certainly win this game. The question is the margin, and that is where Willem II have held up better than the table suggests. Ajax have beaten them by three or more just once in the last five meetings, a 5-0 in December 2021. The other four finished 2-1, 1-0, 1-0 and 3-1. Ajax score almost 3 goals a game and have won 9 of their last 14. They are also looser than that record looks. At home they have won 4, tied 2 and lost 1, and they let in more than a goal a game there. PSV beat them 1-3 in Amsterdam on 5 September. Willem II are in real trouble. They sit 17th with 2 points from 5 games and have let in 9 more than they have scored. They have seven players out, including their goalkeeper and centre back Justin Hoogma. NEC beat them 1-4 and GO Ahead Eagles beat them 1-4. Even so, they should get one back against a defence that has let in goals in every home game it has played this season. A 3-1 to Ajax is the likely finish, and that margin keeps this pick alive. The danger is plain. Ajax have won 5-1 and 4-0 inside the last month, and a night like that beats us. We are taking Willem II to stay within range.

💬 Valencia are bottom of La Liga with 1 point from 5 games and have scored once in their last five. Those games read 0-1, 0-5, 1-3, 0-1 and 0-0. They come here without three centre backs in Copete, Diakhaby and Tarrega, and right back Foulquier is out as well. Striker Umar Sadiq is missing too, so there is very little coming the other way. Alaves are fourth and they are strong at Mendizorroza. In nine home games they have won 5, tied 2 and lost 2, scoring 2 goals a game there. That run includes a 5-2 against Osasuna and a 3-0 against Getafe. Valencia score a goal a game and let in more than that. A patched up back line against that Alaves attack is the story of the night. Expect the home side to take control early and score either side of half time. A 2-0 is the most likely finish, and a win is all we are asking for. The one worry is that Valencia are at their most stubborn when they sit deep. They have a 0-0 with Celta and 0-1 losses to Betis and Sevilla to show for it, and the last four meetings between these two were all tight. Alaves are still the side we want.

💬 Hearts are third on 12 points from 5 games and have not lost in nine games in all competitions. Falkirk are 11th of 12 on 2 points. That gap is the heart of this one. Falkirk have lost 7 of their last 9 home games and let in more than 2 goals a game at their own ground. They are creating almost nothing at the moment. Hearts score almost 2 goals a game and have won 7 of their last 16. Their last five read four wins and a tie. The head to head says the same thing. Hearts have won four of the last five meetings, and Falkirk have not scored in four of those five. Falkirk will get bodies behind the ball after ten days off, but they carry almost no threat going the other way. Expect Hearts to take control through the middle and win it. A 1-2 is the most likely finish, and Falkirk's goal is more likely to come from a set piece than from open play. There are reasons for care. Hearts are much weaker on the road, where they have won 2, tied 2 and lost 4. They are short in midfield too. Blair Spittal has had surgery and faces around three months out, with Oisin McEntee and Tomas Magnusson also missing. We still want Hearts to win this.

💬 Lincoln have the better record across their last 14 games and they travel well. They have won 8 of their last 14 games. On the road they have won 6, tied 1 and lost 2, letting in just over a goal a game. That is the main reason we are with them. Bristol City have won 5, tied 3 and lost 5 of their last 13. They score just over a goal a game at Ashton Gate, and they let in 4 at Southampton on 12 September. Centre back Luke McNally is out, which does not help a back line that has been opened up lately. Lincoln have the opposite problem. Almost nothing happens in their games. Their last four league games finished 1-0, 1-1, 0-0 and 1-0, so four goals in four matches. That shape is hard to break down. Bristol City will have more of the ball at Ashton Gate, but clear chances should be rare. A 1-1 is the most likely finish, and a night like that suits this pick. Two things give us pause. Bristol City have not tied a home game in six, winning 3 and losing 3, so a level game goes against their own pattern. Lincoln are also without Tendayi Darikwa and Melia, with Tom Hamer a doubt. We are still happy to back Lincoln to leave Bristol unbeaten.

💬 Middlesbrough control games at the Riverside, and a controlled game is usually a quiet one. Boro have won 6, tied 1 and lost 1 at home, scoring 2 goals a game there and letting in less than a goal a game. That defending sets the ceiling for this match. Millwall arrive in no state to raise it. They have eight players ruled out and two more doubtful, with Cundle, Doughty and Ivanovic among the names. Millwall score more than a goal a game, and only 6 of their last 14 games had 3 or more goals in them. Their patched up midfield will spend the night chasing the ball rather than keeping it. The history says the same thing. These sides have averaged just over 2 goals across their last 20 meetings. Both teams played three days ago, so nobody will be racing around late on. A 2-0 Boro win is the most likely finish, with the opener before half time and a second after the break to kill it off. That total lands this pick comfortably. The warning is a real one though. Millwall have let in 3 or more goals in three of their last five, losing 1-3 at Blackburn, 0-3 at home to Wrexham and 1-5 at Southampton. Boro's last home game also finished 4-3, so goals can arrive here in a rush. We still expect a much tighter night than that.

💬 Fulham cannot score away from home, and that is the simplest reason to be with West Ham. Fulham have not won on the road all season. Their away record reads 0 wins, 4 ties and 3 defeats, with one goal in seven away games. They sit 18th in the Premier League and are still looking for a first win from their opening four. Cairney and De Fougerolles are both out. West Ham are the opposite story. They top the Championship, their last five games read four wins and a tie, and they have won 9 of their last 16 overall. At home they have won 7 and lost 2 of nine games, and they score almost 3 goals a game there. Both managers will change their teams for a cup night. West Ham are expected to make around nine changes to the side that won 6-0 against Wrexham. That evens a lot of this out, which is why a 1-1 looks the most likely finish. A tie sits on the right side of this pick. The risk is the one you can already see. A rotated West Ham back line is untested, with Soucek and Areola unavailable and Veltman a doubt. Fulham can bring Premier League players off the bench and a cup night can turn late. We still want West Ham, who are winning almost everything at home right now.

💬 Pisa are the reason this pick is on. They have won 3 and lost 12 of their last 16 games. On the road they have won 1 and lost 6, scoring less than a goal a game and letting in more than 2. They have been beaten by 2 or more goals in 6 of their last 16. Now they plan to change most of the team, with a league game against Mantova on Sunday and a hard spell of the season to get through. Fiorentina are far from perfect themselves. They score just over a goal a game at the Franchi. Across their last 13 games they have let in more goals than they have scored. But they did put four past Benevento at home in the last round of this cup, so the goals come when the other side is weaker. They have won 5, tied 4 and lost 4 of those 13 games. Two goals should be enough to get through here, and a 2-0 Fiorentina win is how it looks. A two goal win is exactly what this pick wants. Score first before the hour and a changed Pisa side has nothing to come back with. The worry is Fiorentina's own home form. They lost 0-3 to Frosinone and 1-2 to Torino at the Franchi, and Vanoli is resting players here too. We still think the gap in quality shows up on the scoreboard.

💬 Arsenal's changes are not like other teams' changes. Gyokeres, Madueke, Merino and Zubimendi are all in line to start, and that is a level above anything Ipswich can put out. Arsenal have won 12, tied 3 and lost 2 of their last 17 games, and all of their last five finished in wins. What makes them so hard to play against is the defending. They let in under a goal a game across those 17 games, and they have not lost by 2 or more goals in any of them. Ipswich are in decent form themselves. They score almost 2 goals a game at Portman Road and they won 3-2 at Crystal Palace last time out. The problem is that chances against this Arsenal back line have been rare all year. Arsenal have won both recent meetings, 4-0 and 1-0. Expect them to quiet the crowd early, go ahead before the break and add a second on the counter. A 0-2 is the likely finish and that lands this pick. The caution is the margin. Arsenal have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 17 games, so winning by two is a genuine ask. Their back line is patched as well, with Ben White being checked on a groin problem and Mosquera and Timber short of match rhythm. We still think Arsenal have too much for a changed Ipswich side.

💬 Tottenham cannot score right now, and that is the heart of this pick. Spurs have not scored in four of their last five league games, including 0-2 at home to Newcastle and 0-3 at Brentford. They score just 1 goal a game overall, and under a goal a game in their six away games. Tonali and Porro both miss this one. Richarlison has been frozen out, and Simons, Odobert and Kulusevski are all long term absentees. That is a very thin attacking pool for a side already short of goals. Liverpool will rotate heavily, with Mamardashvili in goal and teenagers Ngumoha and Nyoni in line to start, though Isak still leads the line. Liverpool are not a team that blows games open either. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 18. A 2-0 Liverpool win looks like the shape of the night. They should control the ball, score either side of half time, then see the tie out rather than chase a third. The last two meetings finished 1-1 and 2-1, both quiet enough. The worry is that these games are not usually quiet. Liverpool's last 18 games have produced 3 or more goals 10 times, and the last 20 meetings have averaged more than 3 goals. If the young Liverpool side gives up an early goal, this can open up fast. We still want the low scoring night here.

💬 Two divisions separate these teams, and Brentford have made it clear they want a run in this cup. They sit sixth in the Premier League after an unbeaten start, and they put six past Birmingham away in the last round. Manager Keith Andrews has said he is taking this competition very seriously. Reading are 14th in League One and they leak goals at their own ground. They have let in almost 2 goals a game across seven home games and lost four of them, including a 3-4 defeat by Luton. They also lost 1-2 at Cambridge last time out. Reading will have a go, because they score 2 goals a game at home, so this should be an open game rather than a dull one. The gap in finishing decides it. Brentford score almost 2 goals a game and let in fewer, and their front line is a level above anything Reading have faced. A 1-3 Brentford win is the likely night, with Reading landing a blow and the visitors answering twice over. The catch is Brentford's habit of tying games. They have tied 11 of their last 18 and have won by 2 or more goals only 3 times in that run. Heavy rotation is likely here too, and a much changed side can take time to click. We still think the class gap shows up on the scoreline.

💬 Elche are in real trouble and Real Madrid have the players to make that hurt. Elche sit 19th in La Liga with 2 points from 5 games and a goal difference of minus 7. They have let in three or more in three of their last four games, including 0-5 at home to Barcelona and 2-3 against Real Sociedad. They are being badly outplayed rather than getting unlucky. Elche have also won by 2 or more goals in none of their last 15 games, so they take control of nothing. Madrid have won 10 of their last 15 and score more than 2 goals a game. They are without Militao, Mendy and Rodrygo. Mbappe, Vinicius and Bellingham are all expected to start, and that front three is far too much for this defense. Madrid have scored four in three of their last five home games. Elche have not beaten Madrid in the last 13 meetings. A 1-3 Madrid win is the honest read, and we want them to stretch the margin further than that. Elche usually get on the scoresheet at home, but the game should be over as a contest long before the end. The care point is Madrid on the road. They have won 3 of 7 away games, and they score just over a goal a game in them. They also lost 0-1 at Betis earlier this month. Madrid still have the quality to win this one big.