Bayer Leverkusen vs Celje — Tips & Analysis

Bayer Leverkusen -2.5: Celje are in poor shape and Leverkusen should be far too strong for them at the BayArena. Celje have lost four of their last five games. They were beaten 4-1 at Brinje-Grosuplje, 1-0 at home by Koper and 2-1 at Bravo. Leverkusen score more than 2 goals a game and their games have almost 4 goals in them on average. Nine of their last 12 games finished with 3 or more goals, so the goals are usually there. What we need is a three-goal win, and that is the honest ask here. The likeliest score is 3-1, a comfortable home win but one goal short of what we want. Leverkusen do not keep clean sheets. They let in more than a goal a game, including three at second tier Elversberg and two at Augsburg last weekend. Celje should get something at the other end, and that is what makes the margin tricky. Two things give us pause. Leverkusen have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 12 games, so big wins are not their habit. Six players are out, including Boniface and Tella, and with a league game to follow more changes are likely. We still want Leverkusen, because Celje have been beaten too often lately to hold out for ninety minutes.