Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna — Tips & Analysis

Osasuna +1.5: Atletico are short of strikers, and that is why we like Osasuna to stay close. Sorloth has been out for a month with a muscle problem and has not trained on the pitch. Barrios is out too, and Julian Alvarez is a doubt after missing group training. Atletico have also been scoring more than their chances deserve. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 4 of their last 16 games. Osasuna are better at the back than their results suggest. They have lost by 2 or more in just 2 of their last 15 games. They let in more than a goal a game. Herrando, Oroz, Gomez and Rosier are all missing, so they will set up to defend and stay in it. Atletico have had three days since their last game, one less than Osasuna, with a derby against Real Madrid to come. That makes changes to their team likely. A grinding 1-0 to the hosts is the likeliest score, and Osasuna losing that narrowly still works for us. The risk here is real. Atletico have won seventeen of the last twenty meetings between these two, and they put three past Real Sociedad on Sunday. If Alvarez is passed fit and starts, this can turn into a comfortable home win. We still think Osasuna keep the margin down.