AC Milan vs Benfica — Tips & Analysis

Benfica +0.5: Milan do not score enough to bully anyone, and that is why we are with Benfica here. Milan score just over a goal a game, and their matches have just over 2 goals in them on average. They have won by 2 or more goals in only 2 of their last 16 games, and they have lost three of their seven at home. This is a team that wins tight or does not win at all. Benfica are on a proper run. They have won 12 and lost only 1 of their last 17 games, and their last five have all ended in wins. On the road they let in less than a goal a game. The honest part is where those goals came from. Benfica built that record against Casa Pia, Moreirense, Maritimo, Aarhus and Hearts, so nobody should expect them to pull Milan apart. What they should do is defend well and take something from the night. A 1-1 looks like the likeliest score, and a tie suits us fine. There are two things to watch. Milan are fully fit and unbeaten in four league games under their new manager. Benfica have a day less rest and are without Alexander Bah. Milan getting on top early at home is the danger. We are still happy to back Benfica to hold firm.