Tips — Thursday, 17 September 2026

💬 Levski have turned Sofia into a fortress, and that is the heart of this one. They have let in less than a goal a game across their last ten home games and won eight of them. They kept a clean sheet at home against AEK Athens in Champions League qualifying and won 1-0 away at Kairat Almaty. Levski have won 12 of their last 18 games and let in under a goal a game overall. Salzburg are the stronger, deeper squad and they have not lost away all season. Three of those seven away trips ended level, and they let in under a goal a game too. Two defences this tight usually mean a low-scoring night. Expect Levski to sit narrow and try to nick something from a set piece. Salzburg will have the ball and find the final pass hard to make. Levski do have three players out and four more doubtful, so the back line may not be the usual one. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and a quiet night is what we are backing. The warning is Salzburg's away scoring. They score more than 2 goals a game on the road and have won four of their last five, including 5-1 and 4-1 wins. We still expect a tight, low-scoring game.

💬 Hoffenheim keep turning up in high-scoring games, and that is the strongest reason to back goals here. They have had 3 or more goals in 12 of their last 14 games. They let in more than 2 goals a game on their travels and 2 a game overall. Their defending has been the story of their season. They have also lost three of their last five, so they arrive in poor shape. OFI are flying at home in Heraklion. They have won six of their last seven there and score more than 2 goals a game at the Pankritio. They won 1-0 away at Olympiakos on 12 September and knocked out CSKA Sofia 3-0 and 2-0 in qualifying. So a confident home side that goes after teams meets a visiting side that cannot stop anyone. Expect OFI to get at Hoffenheim early, and Hoffenheim have enough going forward to answer. A 2-1 to OFI is the likeliest finish, and an open game like that is the shape we are backing. The one worry is OFI's own record at the back in Heraklion. They let in under a goal a game there, and only 8 of their last 17 games had 3 or more goals. We still want goals here.

💬 Getafe do not score on the road, and that is the case for backing Betis here. Getafe have scored just two goals in six away games this season. Across the year they score under a goal a game. Their two most direct attackers, Christantus Uche and Juanmi, are both out, so there is little left to hurt a good home side with. Betis have turned the Villamarin into a hard place to visit. They have won five and tied one of their last six there, letting in under a goal a game. They have already beaten Real Madrid and Real Sociedad 1-0 on that pitch this season. Expect the same shape again. Betis keep the ball, Getafe sit deep and narrow, and one moment decides it. The last 20 meetings between these two averaged 2 goals in total, so neither side tends to blow the other away. A 1-0 Betis win is the most likely score, and a second goal would make the night comfortable. The risk is that Getafe are good at exactly this job. They have already ground out two 1-1 ties this month, and Betis have been letting teams create more than their clean sheets suggest. Betis have also had three days since their last game, one fewer than Getafe. We still think they have too much for this Getafe side.

💬 City win these games now, but they do not blow teams away. They have won by two or more goals in only 6 of their last 17 games. Their games have had almost 3 goals in them on average, so the goals do not pile up around them. City score 2 goals a game and let in under a goal, which is control rather than chaos. They are also making a lot of changes for this cup tie. Geronimo Rulli and Allan are in line for debuts, Doku is injured and Foden is suspended. A rebuilt team needs time to click, and that slows the opening half hour. Norwich are not a soft touch either. They have been beaten by two or more in only one of their last 13 games. They carry a threat too, scoring just over 2 goals a game, so expect them to stay compact and land a punch. That points to a 2-1 City win. Three goals in total is the quiet night we want. The warning is the history between them. These two have averaged just over 4 goals across their last 13 meetings, and Norwich games have almost 4 goals in them on average. If the changed City side clicks early, a 4-0 is not hard to picture. We still expect a controlled cup night rather than a landslide.

💬 Marseille cannot score away from home, and that is the heart of this pick. They have won two and lost five of their seven away trips, with just three goals scored in them. They did not score in either of their last two away league games, losing 0-1 at Rennes and 0-2 at Monaco. Kondogbia is missing from their midfield, so the supply line is thinner again. Beşiktaş have been strong at home. They have won six of their eight home games, scoring 2 goals a game there and letting in under a goal. They have won 10 of their last 15 overall, and they have not lost by two or more in any of those 15. Their defense is doing real work, not riding its luck. The shape of the night looks clear. Beşiktaş take an early grip in a loud stadium and Marseille struggle to build anything. The home side should then manage the rest without a late scramble. A 2-0 Beşiktaş win is the most likely score, and that is a comfortable result for us. The caution is that Beşiktaş are without Trossard, Keleş and Rashica, so their attack is thinner than usual. They also lost 0-1 at Kauno Žalgiris in this competition last month, and Marseille may look different in Europe than they do in France. We still want Beşiktaş.

💬 Ferencváros do not let games get loose, and that is the main reason we want the quieter night. They have let in under a goal a game across 17 games, and they have lost just one of those 17. On the road they have won seven, tied one and lost one. They arrive unbeaten in eight and able to name an unchanged side. A team like that is happy to take a point and slow everything down. Celtic have won all eight at home, scoring more than 2 goals a game there. Those numbers come against Aberdeen, Falkirk and Dundee. Their hardest test told a different story, and they were beaten 3-0 at Rangers last time out. They are also without Jota and Johnston, with Oxlade-Chamberlain suspended, so the attack has less bite. Celtic will have the ball and press late. Ferencváros defend their box well and break out in ones and twos. That gives us a goal apiece. A 1-1 keeps this a quiet total. The honest worry is Celtic's habit of busy games. Their last 16 games produced 3 or more goals 14 times, and they let in five at LASK on one of their tougher nights. One early goal can open this up. We still expect a tight European game.

💬 This one is about margins, and both sides point the same way. Palace have won by two or more in just 3 of their last 16 games. Lech have been beaten by two or more once in their last 18. Big wins are not what either team produces. Palace are also short up front. Mateta is four games into a hamstring problem, Nketiah is doubtful and Sarr is only just back. A side that scores just over a goal a game and lets in almost 2 is not built to run away with a European night. They have been creating little and giving up plenty lately. Lech are the better organised team here. They have lost only 2 of their last 18 games and they let in under a goal a game. They sit in a tight shape, protect the middle and make you play around them. Their away scoring is flattered by a 5-0 at KI Klaksvik and a 2-2 at Thun, so this is not about Lech winning. It is about them staying close, and they nearly always do. A 1-1 looks the likeliest score, and that suits us. The risk is the occasion. A European night at Selhurst Park can lift a home side above its league form. Some of the missing Palace names are squad paperwork rather than injuries. We still think Lech keep this close.

💬 Torreense do not get beaten heavily, and that is the whole case for giving them a head start here. They have lost by 2 or more goals only twice in their last 16 games. Lillestrom are playing well. They have won four of their last five, beating Valerenga 2-0 at home and winning 2-1 away at Brann. Big wins are still rare for them. Lillestrom have won by 2 or more goals in only 5 of their last 17 games. Torreense are a Portuguese second tier side built to make nights like this hard. They let in about a goal a game across 16 games and have tied 5 of them. Expect Lillestrom to have the ball and the territory without finding much space against a packed defence. Torreense will sit in and wait for one moment from a counter or a set piece. Lillestrom are also without Linus Alperud, Espen Garnas and Camil Jebara, and Torreense come in close to full strength. A 1-1 is the likeliest finish, and a tight game like that is what we want. The risk is that Lillestrom's games are not always quiet: 10 of their last 17 had 3 or more goals. Torreense's recent run also mixes two different divisions, so their real level is hard to pin down. We still think they keep this close.

💬 Both of these sides play in games full of goals, and that is the simplest reason to back this one. Union St. Gilloise have had 3 or more goals in 11 of their last 14 games. Plzen have had 3 or more in 10 of their last 15. Plzen are strong at the Doosan Arena. They score more than 2 goals a game there and let in just over one. Their recent run includes a 5-5 at Teplice, a 5-1 win over Crvena Zvezda and a 3-2 over Zlin. They also lost 2-3 at home to Sigma Olomouc, so they do not keep things quiet. Union are the better side on paper. They score more than 2 goals a game and have won 8 of their last 14. They have not lost in five. They start this campaign with holes though. Raul Florucz, Adem Zorgane and Kamiel Van de Perre are suspended, and Mac Allister, Sykes, Rodriguez and Chibani are out. A patched up Union side against a Plzen team that attacks at home points to an open, messy night. A 2-2 is the likeliest finish, and a game with four goals in it is just what we want. The risk is that Union rebuild their midfield around the suspensions and sit deeper to protect themselves. Plzen's big numbers also lean on a few wild scorelines. We still want the busier game.