AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.5: AIK have stopped protecting their own goal at home, and that is the main reason we want goals here. They have lost five of their seven home games this season. Four days ago Vasteras beat them 4-1 on that same pitch. AIK's games have just over 3 goals in them on average, and 12 of their last 18 have finished with 3 or more. Mjallby arrive in poor shape. They have taken one point from their last five games and let in fourteen goals in that run. They have not won any of their seven away games. On the road they score less than a goal a game and let in more than 2. AIK have the better squad and should win this one, but nine of their players are listed out, including centre-back Papagiannopoulos. A clean sheet would be well out of character for them. So the shape is AIK winning a game they also leak in. A 2-1 to the hosts is the most likely score, and that gets us home. The worry is the history between them. These two have averaged just over 2 goals across their last fourteen meetings, and Mjallby only score about a goal a game. A beaten side can sit deep and keep a night like this quiet. We still want the busier game, because AIK's back line has not looked like keeping anyone out for weeks.