Kyoto Sanga vs Kashiwa Reysol — Tips & Analysis

Over 2.5: Goals follow Kyoto around at home. Their nine home games have averaged more than 3 goals, and they let in 2 a game there. That is where this pick starts. Kyoto sit 15th with five points from six league games and a goal difference of -4. They score just over a goal a game and let in almost 2. They have lost 10 of their last 19 games, and 7 of those defeats were by 2 or more goals, so they do not shut games down. Kashiwa are fourth and score more than a goal a game. They have lost their last two 0-2 and 0-2, but they made the better chances in both games, so the goals should come back soon. The odd part of their season is that they have not tied once in 19 games. Every match they play ends with a winner. Games between these two open up as well. The last 15 meetings averaged more than 3 goals. Our read is a 2-1 Kashiwa win. Three goals in the game is what we are after, and that read gets us there. The catch is that only 6 of those 15 meetings had 3 or more goals, so a couple of wild nights carry that average. Kyoto also won the last meeting 1-0 in June, so they can make this awkward. We still want the goals here.