Waterford vs Dundalk — Tips & Analysis

Under 3.25: Waterford have turned their own ground into a fortress. They have lost once in 11 games there, and they let in just over a goal a game at home. A controlled night is what we want, and the home side have been serving up exactly that. Waterford come in on WWDWW form, with a 2-0 win at St Patrick's and a 3-0 win over Sligo in that run. They score just over 2 goals a game at home. They can win this without the game turning into a shootout. Dundalk look busier than they really are. Their games average more than 3 goals in total, but that number is pulled up by an 8-0 cup win over Castlebar Celtic. They have won 7 and lost 9 of their last 20 games, and their last five read LWLWL. They also lost a cup tie 4-2 at Derry on 6 September, so they travel south on five days' rest to Waterford's seven. A 2-1 Waterford win is the most likely score, and that keeps this pick on the right side. The home side control games rather than trade blows, and a tired away team rarely changes that. History is the warning here. The last 20 meetings between them averaged 3 goals in total, and the last three finished 3-2, 3-3 and 0-5. Waterford's record at home still points to a quieter game, and that is the side we want.